Weekend Update: When Logic And Proportion Have Fallen Sloppy Dead

The Big Picture: TSLA and the Dow

What will come first, TSLA 2,000 or Dow 20,000? There is an abundance of both technical and fundamental evidence that both will come to pass in the weeks and maybe months ahead. Tesla Battery Day is coming on September 22nd and it could be another one of those "buy the rumor sell the news" opportunities which worked out well with the Tesla's 2nd qtr earnings report on July 22nd (chart below). As for the "Big Picture" market outlook, Sep-Oct being historically the bloodiest months for the Dow, especially when at the end of a summer rally, and with building bullish exuberance as expressed in a $2T AAPL market cap, it is possible that both objectives will manifest, and within weeks of each other. More problematic will be how to manage the trades for maximum gains. (See discussion below.) And then there is that pesky election looming...ludicrous mode engaged. 


Getting the most profit out of every trade starts with taking trades that provide the prospect of gains in the first place. Below are tables of the past few months' trades with the best returns possible from which to extract said gains. Numbers for both current and 50% trailing stop results are purposely omitted from these tables so as to isolate on potential. Best Returns reflect what is and was possible from recent trades over the past few months. There is no option trading universe where those best returns are realistically expected, but the numbers do suggest that almost without exception there are healthy gains to be made in each of these trades. Rule-based exits have inherent limitations, flexibility is lost in the cold objectivity of "if X then Y."  Shooting from the hip to lock in a generous gain or cutting out a loss before gangrene sets in needs to have a place in our arsenal, especially in a market where logic and proportion have fallen sloppy dead.

Look for strategy adjustments on trade-by-trade basis going forward, all geared toward putting more of the Best Returns column into our accounts.