Our May 12th Weekend Update introduced a trading cycle for Bitcoin (GBTC) that is based not upon price, or technical indicators, but upon pre-determined monthly cycles. It called for a top in Bitcoin and GBTC on May 11th that will lead into a Buying Opportunity low next week.
Weekend Update: Bitcoin Option Expiration & Monthly Cycles
In the spirit of, "Find something that works, then trade it."
The full moons all come in the last week of each month. Also occurring in the last week of each month, specifically the last Friday of each month, is Bitcoin Options Expiration on the CME.
In simple trading terms:
(1) Full Moon + Last week of each month = Buying opportunity for Bitcoin (and its derivatives). The next Full Moon is May 26th and the next CME Bitcoin options expiration is May 28th.
(2) New moons represent temporary tops. The last new moon was May 11th, which was the day Elon Musk's tweet announcing the cessation of Tesla accepting Bitcoin for payments on new vehicles. It set off a Bitcoin selling cascade dropping the price from $58,000 to $48,500 within 24 hours...all in the shadow of the May 11th new moon.
[Edit May 19th: Bitcoin crashed to $30,000 this morning, GBTC touched $28.00, down from 45.75 on May 11th]
GBTC Trading Chart: Two Week Cycle (Updated May 19)