TSLA Catalysts 2023
courtesy Gary Black, CEO Future Fund (FFND)
TSLA is FFND's second largest holding behind GOOGL
(1) 1st quarter EPS likely to beat April 19;
(2) Energy Revenues +100% Year over Year
(3) Tax Credit $7,500 clarity
(4) New Gigafactory 2Q
(5) Elon steps down as Twitter CEO 3Q
(6) TSLA $10 Billion Share Buyback Announced
(7) Cybertruck Launch 4th Quarter
(8) $25K Compact Announced FY '24
Black's Price Target: $350 6-12 Months
My only skepticism addresses the $10 Billion buyback. Share buybacks have never been part of TSLA's master plan, although Elon has softened somewhat on the possibility. This may be related to his loyalty, or obligation, to TSLA shareholders who have had to take a back seat to the Twitter debacle over the past six months. A serious stock buyback discussion any times soon (Earnings: Apr 19th) would send share price soaring, let alone the actual implementation of an actual buyback plan. Accordingly, while it is the only catalyst on Gary Black's list that I don't see coming to fruition in 2023, if it did, that in and of itself will send the shares through the roof. It is reason enough to always hold some deep out of the money calls going out at least one, if not two years.
In preparation of my new white paper on TSLA, I have been reviewing the AMZN and AAPL analogues that I made in late 2019. Accordingly, TSLA is in track for exponential growth, up as much as 10X in the 3 years. That will take share price above $2,000 and total market cap into the neighborhood of $5-6 Trillion. Keep an eye on the new Gigafactory developments in Mexico, it is huge, and it may very well make all of our dreams come true with these shares. Electric vehicle adoption is soaring across the planet and by the end of the 2020's it is likely that 80% of new vehicles sold will be electric. TSLA is five years ahead of all competitors. In the year 2030, they will still be five years ahead.
Finally, ARK Invest is due out with a new revised price projection for TSLA, which should be out within 30 days. A lot of analysts will be looking for this report, and a lot of them will be surprised. Reading between the lines of interviews with their top TSLA analysts, senior analyst Tasha Keeney in particular, $1,000 by 2026 looks like a lock, if not conservative, and a bullish case might very well approach my own $2,000 target.
There is only one online trading service that I know of that is dedicated exclusively to making its subscribers wealthy via TSLA options across short, intermediate and long term strategies. In the words of Ken Kesey, you're either on the bus or off the bus...and that too will be electric by the end of the decade, and no doubt a price catalyst for another year later in this decade.
What Happens to TSLA Call Options When Shares Doubles in Price?
In the first 40 days of calendar year 2023 TSLA shares ran up from $101 to $217, more than doubling in what looks like a Wave 1 of 5 impulse waves up in 2023. The second up wave is due to begin any time and expectation is for at least as much if not more in terms of upside percentage. The charts below are EXAMPLES of how a sampling of out-of-the-money calls performed between Jan 4th Feb 16th and then into early April. From this we can extrapolate that returns of 10X to 20X in 45 days are likely, possible, probable, but at a minimum, doable, given the assumed structure of the coming Wave 3 Up.
Someone has to be watching out for these trades, if not us, who?
During the first 45 days of 2023 TSLA was up 115% from low to high. Below is a sampling of call options and their performance during that run. The sole purpose in presenting these charts is to emphasize exponential returns that are possible with out-of-the-money options when trading an explosive Elliott Wave impulse pattern. Do not assume you can get in at low tick and out at the top, that ain't going to happen. The 80% that is in the middle, that is a more realistic goal and more easily obtained result; and it is something that is what we are after with each and every new option trade.
TSLA Apr 21st $150C from $5.10 to $70 in 45 days
TSLA Apr 21st $200C from $1.30 to $33.87 in 45 days
TSLA Jul 21st 2023 $250C from $1.50 to $24.50 in 45 days
TSLA Sep 15th 2023 $350C from $0.83 to $11.26 in 45 days