TSLA: Another Swing For The Fences

Sometime before the end of 2020 I will recommend a new long-term buy and hold call to replace the Jan 15th 2021 call before it expires. What are the chances of another 5000% winner? This was not a fluke. If you missed the first one, you are getting another chance, another swing for the fences. Same pitcher, same fastball down the middle of the plate. Is it worth taking a swing this time?  

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TSLA is up 550% since my "Game Changer" white paper sent out the weekend of December 7, 2019. The showcase recommendation from that piece was of the Jan 15th 2021 $84C (split adjusted from $420) and is up nearly 5,000%. The opportunity ahead is too rich to attribute those results to a lucky guess. History may not repeat, but it does rhyme, and the most dynamic period of Tesla's growth as an energy and personal/commercial transportation company is still ahead. 

Where the Dec 9th analysis was based chiefly on the advent of the Cybertruck, this updated analysis goes substantially further because we are no longer only factoring in a single vehicle, but are now addressing a development that will change the world. This catalyst for future growth was set out on the Sep 22nd Battery Day and in the unveiling of disruptive battery technology that will affect not just cars, trucks, vans and semi's, but the entire global power grid itself. Clean, renewable, sustainable and affordable energy is the future. And that future, as set out in the fine print in Battery Day physics, is Tesla.  

Battery Day ushered in another game changer for Tesla and the stock appreciation from here could be exponential and if not, simply massive. As many subscribers who still hold the Jan 2021 calls can affirm, all this growth potential can and will be financially rewarding and for some who are reading this, life changing. By the end of 2023, just 3 years from now, Tesla will be the most valuable public company in the world, dethroning Apple which is currently worth $2T. Our goal is to take that expectation and run with it, using shares and options to maximize every last penny of profit from being on the right side this trade...or more opportunistically, series of trades. 

Battery Day - Significance 

As Battery Day revelations have now been number crunched, the implications for revenue based upon projected battery production is, in the words of Elon Musk, truly, "Mind blowing." Along and as a result of TSLA's dynamic run-up over the past year there have been a flood of YouTube amateur analysts gushing all over the company with little insight beyond knowing how to correctly place the hyphen in self-driving. Some amateur and professional analysts do stand out well above the rest. Probably the most prescient among them has been the TSLA team at ARK Invest. So far (for the past 5 years) they have been spot-on with their analysis of the company AND their price projections. Post the 5-1 stock split, the 4 year forecast from ARK is now between $1,400 and $4,400, the huge spread mostly dependent upon when (and if) Tesla's autonomous driving network is launched.

What those price projections do not fully factor in are the revelations and implications set out on Battery Day, the day when Tesla went from being a technology and car company to being a technology, car and energy company. Whereas its first wave of growth was as an electric car company, it is giving way to a bigger focus on renewable energy and those valuations from ARK are beginning to look understated. 

"Elon Musk's company is 'the leading edge when it comes to electrification and decarbonization,' and is worth trillions of dollars once investors price-in Tesla's growing energy businesses." - Chamath Palihapitiya on CNBC. That interview predates Battery Day by about two months. What did this multi-billionaire early investor in TSLA know? Doesn't matter, we all know it now.  

Below is a link to an independent video posted by Warren Redlich, a semi-unknown and prolific YouTube video producer who gets it and he does so without the Wall Street credentials of ARK. In this video Redlich presents a well documented analysis adding up all of Tesla's products and sources of revenues, including numerous classes of electric vehicles, batteries, electricity storage, and solar roofs and he makes the fundamentals case a 10X price appreciation from current levels:

Tesla: $4,000/share in 2023 - Batteries, Cars, Grid, Semi *

*This is a 47-minute video that dissects the battery day presentation with technical details for 40 minutes, then in the final 7 minutes converts the science into revenues and the implications for share price appreciation. You can skip to the 40:30 minute mark to hear how he weaves the battery production details into revenues and share price by 2023. 

The easiest trade management strategy is to buy 100 shares for $42,000 and ride it up to $400,000 in about three, maybe four years. On the option side, everyone who spent $3,500 on the recommended long term calls from the December 2019 recommendation turned a $3,500 option investment into $165,000. Buying 10 calls @ $3,500 grew $35,000 into $1,650.000. (So far at least one subscriber as confirmed to me he did exactly that.) Since December the stock is up 550% and that includes the period between Feb 19 - March 18 when the stock plummeted 64%. By June 10th it was back to making all time new highs. That's four weeks of pain against 45 weeks of joy.

Mark these words: The best is yet to come.


 The Path Through 2021