Watching & Waiting

Blue Line charts are simple, almost elegant, and more often than not self-explanatory, the next move in prices often jumping off the screen to option traders. For example, this weekend leads off with AAPL and our Intermediate Term Trend Model. The arrows depict mechanical Buy and Sell signals based on average true range derived trend-signal line. In this AAPL model, going back to January 2017 there were 52% winners with the average win twice as large as the average loss. Some trades just require an excuse to act...although nerves of steel do help. Ninety signals, 7 years, averaging about one signal a month. Current signal: Jan 29th Sell @ $191. Status: Watching and waiting.



Unlike the AAPL example, this SPY chart showcases our "pattern recognition" set-up, currently revealing a completed, or close to complete, Elliott Wave pattern ripe for reversal. What do you think we are going to do with the first close back inside the upward sloping trend channel? Status: Watching and waiting. 


Another pattern recognition set-up: The low print for VIX was on Dec 12, 2023 @ 11.81. Since then there has been an all time high on the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq 100...but no new low anywhere to be seen on VIX. This glaring non-conformation may be meaningless, but it also could be a precursor to downside volatility across all market indices. Current status: Watching and waiting,