Following up from two weeks ago's, "Bit O'Coin" update, Bitcoin is not doing much better this 4th of Day Weekend, trading this morning at around $19,000 and offering no clear direction for Tuesday's stock market's Open. In this business a lot can happen in 48 hours, so where equites start off the week is still anyone's guess.
The ongoing EW pattern looks like it wants a new low before even thinking of being done going down for awhile.
First Half 2022
What is not a guess is the "Big Picture" for all financial assets which has been clearly lower in stock market indices since late 2021, early 2022. Success in trading this big picture trend was mostly measured by returns in stock index puts, which for our two services have ranged all the way up to 600% in some expirations. Less tangible and therefore less measurable are losses avoided by taking profits, exiting via stops and/or just not going all in on TSLA calls for the past six months. Don't underestimate the worth of avoiding losses on long trades not taken, those can add up in the long run.
Besides stock index puts one of our better trades of the year was the PRO Service UNG Buy Signal of March 23rd @ $18. As illustrated on the chart and table below, we ran with UNG (via July 15th $18C) from Mar 23rd to a Jun 2nd EXIT Alert, where we took close to the maximum 400% gains. Aggressive traders who rolled up strikes along the way for maximum leverage tripled their gains at least twice, three times for the nimble. Between this and the +600% QQQ Jun 17th $300P trade, set out below, it was a very good first half of 2022 for some active Blue Line subscribers in both services.
Premium & PRO Service: April 20th - Jun 17th QQQ Short Trade
PRO Service: Mar 18th - Jun 2nd UNG Long Trade
Second Half 2022
A trend in motion tends to stay in motion until it stops. In other words, until shown otherwise, our assumption is that the downtrend that has held equities in its grasp all year continues as we enter July trading. In fact and as laid out in both PRO and Premium trades of late, we are expecting the worst of the decline in terms of a Elliott Wave Wave 3 of 3 coming out of this July 4th weekend. Whether it starts at Tuesday's Open or at Friday's close will be inconsequential in terms of our July 15th, August 19th and Sep 16th option expiration positions. Over these few non-market days we are watching this live chart for an inkling of fireworks, in either direction, coming out of the break:
IYR
Finally, there is this trade that has been posted as part of this free newsletter sent out to anyone who has shown interest in my work over the past few years. You can read more about it here and it is still reasonably buyable with IYR still flirting just under $100. It won't stay afloat much longer, especially if the "3 of 3" kicks in next week.
Before Year End
Two buying opportunities are expected before year end 2022: (1) Bitcoin will likely put in an intermediate term trading low in the low to mid-teens from which it will double, or triple before topping out again. We want on board that counter-trend rally, even if its just for a month or two; (2) TSLA is even better. The expectation is for a Long Term Low that will hold for years and provide a launching pad for another multifold exponential run in shares (after 3:1 split in August) and multi-thousand percent returns in LEAPS. Tesla will be a $3 Trillion market cap company between 2024-2026. This run will be my last, so if you ever wanted to make money with me, now is the time to buddy-up, i.e., become a member of this exclusive club: Sign-up