The charts that follow set out two paths, the first two chronicling Bitcoin from its all time high last October to last week's $12K deep decline and followed-up by the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) which is eerily resembling the early stages of Bitcoin's collapse. I fed the "Bitcoin as a leading indicator," thesis through multiple AI engines, with the consensus being:
Yes, Bitcoin is frequently considered a leading indicator for the Nasdaq 100, largely because it functions as a high-beta, 24/7 gauge of risk appetite that often moves in anticipation of tech-heavy equity markets.
Below are the salient charts underlying the proposition that what we saw in the Q's on Friday is just a small taste of what is to come, basis Bitcoin performance and EW structure, for the Nasdaq 100 in the coming months.
Bitcoin
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
Commentary
Take another look at the first two charts: Bitcoin and its poster child, MSTR. I made the case this weekend that the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is following recent path of Bitcoin when it broke below longer term trendlines soon after achieving its October, 2025 all time high of $126,296. Following this analogue, it would take QQQ down from its all time high print of 748.65 on June 3rd, to well under 500 over the next few months. If so, we are in for quite a summer, fall and maybe further into early next year.
PS: We started shorting QQQ in our trading services just last week, but have been short Bitcoin for the past few months. Our expectations for the Q's can be gleaned from these real time results for our current Bitcoin (IBIT) put positions:
Premium Service - Bitcoin(IBIT) Open Positions
PRO Service - Bitcoin (IBIT) Open Positions
Trailing stops on all of the above positions have locked in, for the most part, triples of initial investment in IBIT puts. That's if Bitcoin soars higher from here, triggering the trailing stops; anything less keeps these position alive and hopefully increasing in value...perhaps exponentially.