We went long UVXY on a trendline breakout on April 21st @ $13.00. As per the table above the option of choice for this trade was the May 20th $12C, currently +108% after being as high as +120% yesterday. At the time, the only Fibonacci extensions computable were off of the 5 minute price bars, tempering expectations for appreciation into May 20th. Yesterday's late afternoon retracement allows the use of a longer term extension calculation, based upon the 30 minute bars. As you can see on the chart below, UVXY has huge potential over the next few weeks, spiking to $30 or beyond. If UVXY is going to almost double in the next few weeks, expect some news event to spook the market. Long shot? Yes. UVXY 30 Minute Fib Extension Chart Aggressive traders can roll into and/or buy the May 20th $20C looking for a more leveraged return through expiration. The flip side of that risk:reward scenario is that the $20C could expire worthless a lot easier than the $12C should UVXY not reach $30 by expiration. Key Breakout Level The key breakout level for a run of this magnitude to ignite is taking out Monday's high at 16.79. Let's add a small buffer to that by using a break above $17.00 as triggering a more aggressive strike, rolling into the new $20C. Much higher reward = much higher risk, so this trade may not be for everyone. Current Position: May 20 $12C = 5.00 Aggressive roll-up: May 20 $20C = 1.90 Speculative Alternative: Jun 17th $30C @ 1.90 TSLA TSLA is getting hammered today on fears that Elon Musk will have to sell some of his shares to pay for TWTR. More noteworthy is that price never broke out above the wedge pattern we have been monitoring for the past few weeks. New intermediate term Buy Signal ---> Still pending.
