The Weekend Update ended with a new trade that I had taken on Friday: "Friday afternoon, with TLT hovering just above 23-year support, I personally established small starter positions in the January $80 and $78 Puts. "Why January? Because if we're right about the larger setup, I don't want to be right about direction and wrong about time. January gives the trade more than four months to develop while still providing substantial leverage if TLT breaks down. "But here's the important distinction: those were starter positions, not confirmation positions. "The real signal comes if TLT decisively breaks—and begins closing below—the $80.50-$80.75 support zone. That's where we would look to add exposure. If support holds and TLT turns higher, there is nothing to confirm—and nothing to chase." TLT Weekly TLT has traded as low as $80.47 Monday. A significant break? Not yet. The real move, if it's coming, will likely develop later this week around the Fed meeting and interest-rate announcement. Until then, there is nothing to anticipate. That's precisely why I used January options for my starter position. Time is on our side. A decisive break—and preferably a close—below the $80.50–$80.75 support zone remains the confirmation signal. I couldn't decide between the January $80 and $78 Puts, so I bought small positions in both. The $80s are particularly interesting because of the unusually large Open Interest. Does somebody know something? Maybe. Maybe not. Price will tell us. OXY, XOM & USO - Update These two call positions will expire on Friday: Whatever positions are still being held into expiration, we will want to continue oil exposure into October-December. Look for a fresh USO call trade in the days ahead. USO - Premium Portfolio With a Wave 3 showing on the EW chart, we will look to position into November-December out-of-the-money USO calls by the end of this week. USO Nov Calls
