The S&P 500 was up 9.5% yesterday, a historic rally. Early in the days of the the Covid Crash, it was up a similarly historic amount, this time +10% in three days, in front of what would ultimately be another 33% downside. That entire crash from beginning (Feb 19, 2020) to end ((Mar 23, 2020) took about a month to unfold, said rally being early in the process (Feb 28 - Mar 4). A similar timeline would put the current market on target for a low around mid-May. If the analogue breaks between now and then, we can then get crazy-eyed bullish. The market has to prove itself, and one day of news triggered madness is evidence only of a bearish analogue, so we shall remain vigilant for new entries to the short side. Trade Management TLT Trades Stock Indices Trades Despite a huge market rally against our positions yesterday, all remain positive in early trading today. I took some off along the way, as per these messages over the past few days, and am not disposed to take any more May (or Jun) positions off anytime soon. Too many voices think the bear market ended with a "Tariff Tweet." I don't think so. IWM 120 Minute Chart Notes (1) I've included the Fib retracement levels on this chart, more characteristic of a Wave ii then a Wave iv (i.e., 61.8%), so there could still be some downside fireworks that lay ahead; (2) A IWM close below the shaded rectangle Fib zone, below 183.75, would be bearish, suggesting a decline toward the projected Wave 3 target level @ 145. QQQ 120 Minute A pattern similar to IWM with a close below 437 particularly bearish. Tweet Of The Day "Forget the chaos and focus on those Elliott waves." - EWI on X
