In the first chart below, the DJI has set-up a classic "Bull Trap" where the newly bullish traders and investors are getting trapped going long just after the Open today, news out of Congress (not shown: My sarcasm), and are about to be led to slaughter as all of this morning's gains are given back on the way to taking out Friday's lows, triggering a new tranche of bearish option bets (see recent Updates). Of significance, today's second hourly bar is back inside the downtrending parallel channel, implying a drop to last week's lows, minimum. DJI Hourly Bulletin: After posting this chart the DJI has given back all of today's gains and is now net negative for the day @ 46,975. On a borderline bullish note, this QQQ chart has taken out our mental stop at 620, although not quite yet above the "all out bullish" key level of 625, nor even the Fib retracement of 61.8% at 622. QQQ Hourly Bottom Line: We wait for 625 which would bring into doubt an imminent market collapse, or taking out last week's low of 598 which would all but confirm hard down into the holiday season, although any print below today's gap-up window, call it, 615, would be reversal enough for me to add to my SQQQ Dec 19th $14C. Gold Gold was up over $100 this morning on pure political exuberance (not shown: My sarcasm) which makes it tough to not at least be nibbling on GLD calls in here. Nonetheless, I am watching GLD and SLV closely, looking for a confirmation that the downtrend is over and new highs by January are in the cards. Not quite there yet. Remember, last summer we had stellar returns riding calls in precious metals and mining stocks. Note the Wave 5 Buy on August 1st which was good for a $100 move-up in GLD. If the Wave 4 retracement is over, GLD is headed to 460-525. I would rather buy GLD above $380 and be certain a new uptrend is in place, than buy it now and be less certain that the low is in. A run from $380 to $460 allows for 4X+ returns on out-of-the-money calls. The upper target is > $500. Stand-by for Pending Buys in GLD and/or SLV. 2025 GLD and SLV Trades (PRO & Premium Services) YTD - Through October Monthly Expiration
