Today's PPI Report and hawkish comments from Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester should have finished off the YTD rally, but it's not. Note that SPY support is holding right around 410, and 400 looks like it will hold through another cycle of bad news. Hints of this strength was driven home with the recent strength in Bitcoin, which is up again today, even in light of bad inflation numbers and the threat of higher interest rates. SPY 120 Minute Bitcoin Despite recent strength, Bitcoin has only managed a retest of the previous Wave 4 resistance zone surrounding 25,000. In other words, there is a difference between "a new bull market" and a "retest" of prior highs. A deep dive from current levels is just as likely as a new impulse wave higher. No edge, either way. TSLA A break above 215 is too bullish to ignore, although ideally we would prefer an entry on a pullback followed by new breakout. For that we have a good 30-minute trading model to guide us. Next target on the bullish side is 300, but first 215 has to be left in the dust. TSLA - Short-term Trading Model (30 minute price bars) Absent a pullback we want to own calls above $220. Attractively priced calls for next leg up: Jun 16 2023 $300C (9.90-10.00) Jan 19 2024 $400C (13.50-13.70) Jan 17 2025 $600C (16.50-17.00) The short-term model will trigger Long eventually, but it is as likely to come from higher levels than lower levels. If already holding TSLA calls, wait for fresh Buys, but if not, use a close above $220 as trigger for at least an initial position. Note: Use of "EV" in television commercials and news articles is code for "Tesla," which explains why a company that doesn't advertise is sold out of product and has 1.25 million pre-orders for a $50K+ electric truck. Tesla (TSLA) Is Sold Out of Model Y For The Quarter "Tesla has sold out the Model Y for the quarter in the United States with no more production builds until April, even though we are just halfway through the quarter. "With the significant price drops and the new $7,500 federal tax credit for electric vehicles, Tesla has seen a surge of orders in the United States. "Now sources familiar with the matter told Electrek that Tesla has completely run out of production build slots for the quarter for Model Y, which is now Tesla’s highest-volume model."
