The May 4th IWM low (168.78) is key support. If it fails, especially on a closing basis, expect acceleration down. Black Swan event: Failure to raise debt ceiling...no one is expecting anything to come out of this purely political impasse. Watch May 4th lows across all indices. Any meaningful breakdown below those lows would suggest something more nefarious on the horizon, i.e., debt ceiling impasse, unexpected geopolitical event, or both. IWM VIX Nothing to do yet. We are looking for a fresh Trend Model Buy Signal followed by a break above May 4th high @ 21.33 to trigger purchase of VIX calls.
