The expectation for a crash remains high but now we have some parameters in time and price that will zero in on when to be maximum leveraged to the short side. In terms if time, there is a Fed meeting on Nov 1st, followed by the mid-term election on Nov 8th. The natural inference is that an eight-day crash will begin with the former and end with the latter. In terms of price, SPX 3800 and DJI 31000 stand out as whole number targets, but both could be subject to day-to-day volatility overshoots. Whatever the case, this time next month will see new market lows. Buy Nov 18th expiration and for longer term positions we will start going out to Dec 16th monthly expiration. Bottom line: 2022 market lows still lay ahead, no matter what prices do between now and the end of October. SPX 120 Minute The key question is whether Wave 2 is over, or unfolding still between now and Nov 1-8th?. We are day-to-day on triggering the next leg down, but when it comes there is no doubt it will be worth the wait. UVXY - Rollover to Nov 18th This call was purchased on Sep 16th and is still net positive for the trade. If still holding its time to take the gains and roll into Nov 18th and up to $12 strike, buying 30 days more time for the big picture analysis to evolve. Roll to: Nov 18th $12C (1.65-1.70)
