The failure of the market to break below key levels, SPY 450 and QQQ 375, has prevented any market Sell Signals this week. Additionally, the extremely overbought Fear & Greed Index has tempered any bullishness outside of TSLA earnings from last week. High probability trades have been few and far between and at times like this, doing nothing beats rolling the dice. The trades will come, but we learned long ago not to force them. These three leading components from the CNN Fear & Greed Index are all levels associated with short-intermediate and long term tops. In and of themselves they are reason enough not to chase rallies. We have one special situation long term buy and hold, TSLA, which itself has its better times to buy or sell and even TSLA is giving off mixed short-term signals right now. Sentiment - Still Stretched Extreme Greed - Not a good time to go shopping for calls based on these reliable sentiment related indicators. SPY - A break below 450 now could trigger a rush to the exits TSLA Intermediate Term - Daily Price Bar Chart - Sell Signal The Intermediate Term Trading Model just flashed a Sell Signal as price is trading below its Average True Range level. It may sound complicated, but the implications are straight forward, i.e., that lower prices are ahead before the next leg up begins. Expectations longer-term are still for much higher prices, so hanging on to calls that significant gains with 50% trailing stops is still the game plan, but better set-ups are ahead for any new money trades.
