A lot of moving parts surrounding the market coming out of Easter weekend, including the very important 200 day EMA and the DJI. Note on the chart below that price pierced through in its initial decline and has now risen to kiss the 200 Day EMA from below. It did so a year ago and then immediately dived to its ultimate low ticks before an almost year long rally took over. DJI Daily w/200 Day EMA The geopolitical thunder potential over the next 48 hours makes a repeat of April, 2025 a real threat going into the end of this month. In percentage terms, the EW count allows for as much as a 15-20% dip, similar to what happened in April one year ago. Once past this ominous set-up, we can get back to picking stocks and going long, but the risk is simply too great to start just yet. A tradable decline is very much front and center. If the rug gets pulled, its not only caution that is warranted, but puts as well. SPY Daily w/200 Day EMA The bearish case is for SPY to be trading 10-15% lower, below 600 potential, over the next several weeks. SPY May $600P If looking for a quick way to get leveraged to a downside collapse, this May SPY $600P is a highly leveraged bet with significant pay-off potential. Buy on a break below April 2nd lows (SPY 645).
