Ninety minutes into today's session, we have two very different setups developing. SPY — SELL WEAKNESS SPY — SELL PENDING SPY broke below its six-month rising trendline shortly after the Open, trading as low as 756.64, but has since rebounded toward the upper end of today's range. Rather than chase puts into the rebound, we are tightening the trigger. PRO Trade: Buy SPY Oct. 16 $750 puts if SPY trades below today's 756.64 low. A break of that level would confirm that the first rebound attempt has failed and materially increase the probability that the trendline break is real. SPY 750 remains the first downside objective. Below that, 730–735 comes into play, with 700 the larger multi-week target. SPY October Puts SPCX — BUY STRENGTH While the broad market is weakening, SPCX is doing exactly the opposite. SPCX has been up close to 5% this morning, attacking the major declining trendline that has capped it since the prior highs. More importantly, the stock is showing relative strength on a distinctly weak market morning. The chart is increasingly consistent with the 1–2–3 structure we've been following. A confirmed breakout above the red trendline would open the door to the next leg higher, with the chart's measured objective near $190. We own the Oct $160 Call in the PRO portfolio and a close today above $150 will trigger the Premium Service entry into the SPCX Dec $170-$180 calls. Owning both expirations is a matter of conviction—and how strongly you believe SPCX could be knocking on the $200 door later this fall. SPCX — ADD-ON BUY PENDING SPCX - December Expiration Candidates for Premium Service Note: Any SPCX close above today's morning high tick, 154.69 makes it a bang the table BUY. One market. Two trades. Two directions. That's Confirmatory Analysis: sell what is breaking down and buy what is breaking out.
