Flashback to 2000-2001 and I was part of a collaborative effort to combine technical and fundamental analysis to find winning stocks, culminating with the publication of Confirmatory Analysis: Finding Winning Stocks. Little did we know at the time that 2000-2001 was one of the worst two-year periods of our lifetime to be going long any stock. The underlying principle, however, was golden. Almost 25 years later, Cathie Wood and Allan Harris, experts in fundamental and technical analysis, respectively, have proven that all was not lost in that two year 78% decline in Nasdaq at the turn of the millennium. Below is Cathie Wood's top ten list from ARK Innovation Fund (AARK). Remember, she is strictly a fundamental analyst, but note the preeminence of some of my own favorite and most successful stocks of the past year, all bought on mostly technical analysis: AARK - Top Ten Holdings Substitute BITO for COIN (Bitcoin proxy picks) and three of her top ten picks have also been 3 of my own top five picks of 2024: TSLA, PLTR and COIN/BITO. Note: Not shown but also preeminent in ARK's other extensive holdings are RKLB and SOFI. ARK Innovation Fund is on a run, up 50% from mid-summer and up almost 100% in the past twelve months. For anyone looking for a single option trade to carry them forward into 2025, AARK may be an attractive alternative to holding multiple stock/option positions. Here is my technical analysis roadmap for AARK price appreciation over next six months: AARK This EW and Fibonacci extension projects about a 50% gain from current prices, into the low $90's by mid-year. AARK Jun Calls Bottom Line: The Jun 20th $70C is a 5X to 10X winner if TSLA, PLTR, BTC, SOFI and RKLB continue their bull runs into the 1st and 2nd qtr of 2025. This is a hybrid, "trading" and "buy and hold" pick, nonetheless, still subject to two general rules, a 50% hard stop from entry and a 50% trailing stop based upon "Best Returns" once call is up triple digits. I prefer shorter-term options on individual stocks, but also understand that some people have real jobs and would prefer a one-stock, single decision trading vehicle that still offers the potential for exponential returns, and yes, 5X to 10X is exponential enough for most folks.
