Bitcoin may have bottomed yesterday, roughly on schedule with its two-week moon cycle low. The trade now is Long into the next cycle high due October 6th. This trade will double as a hedge against short positions in the equity markets since lately Bitcoin and the stock market have been in lock step. Short-Term Cycle Buy: MARA Option: Oct 15th $35C (3.10-3.20) Trade Notes: This is a highly aggressive trade based on an inexplicable moon cycle, but one that has been nailing Bitcoin highs and lows all year. It's a 14-15 day cycle and these calls have 24 days to expiration, making this an "all or none" trade. In the down cycle MARA fell from a high of $44.97 to a low of $32.35. In its last up cycle it ran from a low of $35.24 to a high of $44.97. Price only has to rise to about $38 for about a break-even trade, about $41 for a double and about $44 for a triple. Anything under $35 by expiration is a total lost. MARA Hourly - With Moon Cycle Highs and Lows The white circles are full moons, the grey circle the new moon. The arrows indicate hourly trend model buys and sells. A more conservative strategy would be to wait for a formal trend model buy signal before entering long, which could come in the next day two. Alternatively, half a position now, half upon a system Buy. I'll report same if and when it is triggered.
