Zeroing in on SPY Daily, the big picture remains bearish with the worst weeks of the bear market still ahead. More problematic is whether a period of higher volatility and hard down will start this week, or this month. (Continued below SPY 240 chart). SPY Daily SPY 240 Minute The short-term trend model has shifted to an UP arrow, which is significant not for going long, but for being on alert for the next DOWN arrow.. We don't want to be out of the market, or without a short position in, "next month" puts, during the reign of any red down arrow. IWM 240 If a new down leg is imminent it will manifest first in IWM and a new red down arrow will appear on this 240 minute model. If it is triggered this week we will go after the IWM $170P or $165P, either Dec or Jan (or both) monthly expiration. Standby on any downside volatility, i.e., check website for special Alerts. Otherwise, we will wait for the market to finish with its current three-wave counter-trend retracement. The next wave down should not be missed. IWM Dec 15 Puts IWM Jan 19 Puts With 73 days to expiration, these puts, IWM $170 to $165, look cheap based on big picture expectations of Fib extension tool (see chart above) targeting a decline into IWM 145-130 level during Wave iii of (3) down, with put option returns of 10X, minimum.
