Editor Note: Due to the holiday weekend and the need to take a step back in front of some key economic reports, an abbreviated Weekend Update this weekend, with two key charts being all that matters going into this coming week, plus a bonus look ahead toward the rest of year for TSLA. Coming Up This Week The news will once again dominate short-term market momentum this coming week, with the two biggies being Wednesday pre-Open Consumer Price Index and Thursday's pre-Open Producer Price Index. Longer term, this EW labeled Russell 2000 weekly chart sums up the most likely long term trend, unequivocally, and most ominously, to the downside. IWM - Long Term (Weekly) The big economic news this week will have a lot to say about how our current IWM option trade (embedded in chart) turns out. The odds still favor the reward side of the risk:reward profile as the EW count is forecasting a deep third wave down. Depending on how market reaction goes to these big numbers, we will consider rolling out to May-Jun expirations later this coming week. TSLA - Long Term This Long Term TSLA Weekly price line area chart allows for a lower Wave 2 low, maybe as low as the Fib 0.618 retracement around $150. If that were to occur, the following Buy Signal after reaching that level should be met with aggressive buying of short-term, intermediate term and/or long term calls. It would be a mixed blessing, taking current call positions lower, while providing for an even better entry on a newer, high probability trade in a fundamentally favored stock. Should TSLA turn higher next week, a run above $200, we can conclude the lows are in and quick run-up to $250-300 is unfolding. In that case, some additional shorter-term calls would be appropriate, so stay tuned. Guest Opinion: TSLA Doubles in 6-12 Months TSLA Catalysts 2023 courtesy Gary Black, CEO Future Fund (FFND) (1) 1st quarter EPS April 19; (2) Mega-pack Revenues +100% Year over year (3) Tax Credit $7,500 clarity (4) New Gigafactory (5) Elon steps down as Twitter CEO (6) $10 Billion Share Buyback Announced (7) Cybertruck Launch 4th Quarter (8) $25K Compact Announced Gary Black's Price Target: $370 in 6-12 Months Allan's Comments This analysis by Gary Black, a well regarded Tesla bull, falls short in one key aspect and it has to do with #6 on the list, the $10 Billion buyback. Share buybacks have never been part of TSLA's master plan, although Elon has refcently softened somewhat on the possibility. That may be related to a sense of obligation to TSLA shareholders who have had to take a back seat to the Twitter debacle of the past year. Even the discussion of such a move would send share price soaring, let alone the actual implementation of an actual buyback. Accordingly, while it is the only catalyst on Gary Black's list that I don't see coming to fruition in 2023, if it did, that in and of itself will send the shares through the roof. It is reason enough to always hold some deep out of the money calls going out at least 1, if not two years. In preparation of my new white paper on TSLA, I have been reviewing the AMZN and AAPL analogues that I made in late 2019. Accordingly, TSLA is in track for exponential growth, up 10X in the coming 2-3 years. That will take share price above $2,000 and total market cap into the neighborhood of $5-6 Trillion. Keep an eye on the new Gigafactory in Mexico, it is huge, and it may very well make all of our dreams come true, sooner rather than later. Electric vehicle adoption is soaring across the planet and by the end of the 2020's, it is likely that 100% of new vehicles sold will be electric. TSLA is five years ahead of all competitors. In the year 2030, they will still be five years ahead. There is only one online trading service that I know of that is dedicated exclusively to making its subscribers wealthy via TSLA options across short, intermediate and long term strategies. I the words of Ken Kesey, you're either on the bus or off the bus...and that too, will be electric by the end of the decade, i.e., a catalyst for another year.
