Going into the final week of June, the end of the second quarter and completion of the first half of 2024, there is not a high confidence trade on the board. That can change quickly, so by this time on any day next week anything or even everything can look different, but for now we have to wait for patterns and/or signals to unfold. The July 4th holiday this year comes mid-week, the week after next, looming as a monkey wrench in any new trades. Accordingly, we will be looking out to September monthly options expiration for any new positions. NVDA This has certainly been the stock of the year so far, +170% YTD, so its price action this past week could be a huge tell for what to expect along with the beginning of summer. Note: A Weekly Buying Climax shown with shares making a new all time high on Thursday, then closing down for the week on Friday, suggesting exhaustion of the multi-year uptrend. A close on any day next week below $120 would bring the trend model perilously close to a Sell Signal. NVDA options are naturally expensive, but a Sell Signal on this stock is tantamount to a Sell Signal on the Nasdaq which is itself, in light of price action YTD, a Sell Signal on the entire stock market. AAPL On this Daily chart AAPL has already broken down in its intermediate term trend and is also perilously close to a fresh Sell Signal (new red down arrow is pending). Like NVDA, a Sell Signal on AAPL would constitute a Sell on both Nasdaq and the S&P 500. As for IWM, it's already on a Sell: IWM IWM has been on a Sell Signal since May 29th. We continue to closely monitor IWM for a breakdown below the shaded retracement square, at about 195, as shown on this chart. A close below last week's low print, around 197 would suggest IWM is about to do just that. If so, we will be adding IWM Sep 20th puts. QQQ Fragile to say the least, five waves up in multiple time frames and a weak Friday close, much like NVDA. This Nasdaq 100 ETF is also a tell for the general market and should be monitored closely for a break of the indicated Key Level, to be followed by an acceleration down. Stock Market - The Big Picture All of the above charts are sending the same message: Any further weakness next week would signal a new leg down is underway. We will post additional put ideas if and when that occurs. If the market is headed lower, it needs to head lower. Period. GLD False breakout on Thursday, followed by a down Friday. Taking out the indicated Wave 4 low would be bearish. Bitcoin A Weekly chart of Bitcoin: Still showing a five-wave uptrend, but it has to turn up soon or the weight of the evidence will suggest BITO Sep puts will be in order. At this point, it can go either way and that next leg, up or down, could be a doozy.
