No, not the market, not yet. Yours truly, I am sad to say. The past few days have seen me down and out, mostly sleeping and alternating between sweats and chills. There is some light at the end of this saga, as today is the first day I feel my health has taken a step in the right direction, but, alas, I'm just not there yet. So, today's weekend Update will be brief, with some clear cut price levels that are alternatively bullish/bearish for the Intermediate Term. It's the best I can do, given the circumstances. On the other hand, when it comes to market timing, sometimes less is more. IWM Starting this analysis with this Russell index because it is the most succinct in its directional indicators: This shows a major top made on Jan 22, 2026, and price is consolidating before a continuation move lower. That low of Feb 5th @ 255 is the key to much lower prices ahead. Upside requires a rally to above 270. Whichever price level gets taken out first will be the intermediate term path of least resistance. SPY Despite its failure to break down, the S&P 500 is barely where it was last October. It's called churn, usually a top, distribution and a precursor to lower prices. We have been following this Weekly chart of SPY with an eight-week EMA to gauge when and if a breakdown will occur. Last week was a reprieve as the index closed ever so slightly above its EMA. You can see how tenuous its placement is, it will only take a small negative week ahead to return the path of least resistance down. QQQ The weakest link in the market averages, the Nasdaq 100 ETF. Here too, the index looks poised for a breakdown, but a rally early next week will temper that forecast. A break below what I designated as a Wave 1 low (on Feb 5 @ 593) and expect an acceleration down. On the other hand, a rise above that Wave 2 high (Feb 11 @ 617.50) turns back the bearish forecast to neutral. DJI Finally, the narrowest of all indices and one that has not broken down, not yet, the DJI: This longer term wedge formation in the Dow just looks ready to give way to the downside and is not that far away from its own "acceleration down" price level @ 48,417, about 1,200 points below Friday's close. That's only one to two bad market days away. If any of the other acceleration down levels from above indices are hit, expect this one too to fall. That's it for me in this Weekend Update, we will be watching carefully early next week for either a breakdown or breakout across the above indices. It will turn our trading either more bearish, or more bullish, as per the price breaks. We will cover Gold/Silver and Bitcoin during the week, nothing more to do for now. Active Options "Active" = Unexpired & Not Subject to -50% Hard Stop PRO Trading Service Premium Trading Service
