October, 2023 has not been a good month for the world, worse for some than others and horrific for a chosen few. Our, "Big Picture" scenario has taken a turn toward, "Worst Case Scenario," with the latest headlines out of the Middle East leaning more toward "Doomsday Scenario." So let's pretend we will all be here next week, next month and/or next year, as it is a basic underlying assumption when choosing expiration dates.....option expiration, that is, not civilization expiration, which would involve a different algorithm altogether. Key October 2023 Updates Revisited Weekend Update: Enter Stage Left: A New Mid-East War Weekend Update: A New Third Wave Opportunity Weekend Update: A Look Into The Future An Economic Worst Case Scenario "History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes." Trade Management Why revisit those updates now? Because that is the analysis that generated the option recommendations that are currently held in the Premium Service options portfolio in anticipation of hard down to come. In summary, performance going into the the last few days of October has been stellar. If the analysis is right, it's about to get even better: Current Returns (Detailed table at bottom of this page) +45% +247.50% +139.64% +194.81% +272.81% +19.50% The major sell-off described in these updates is unfolding week after week, with the worst of it still to come. Pattern recognition analysis allows for another wave 2 counter-trend rally, or not. If there is another rally next week, short it (i.e., buy more puts) and if there is not, then short the breakdowns through key levels shown on the charts. Trade management will be rolling into December 15th monthly expiration in SPY, QQQ and IWM starting toward the end of next week. Rolling Over Rule of Thumb: Take profits in near term deep in the money options, bank some of that gain, then roll the remainder of proceeds into next month - out of the money strikes. (Next Month = November until Wednesday, then becomes December) The Big Picture - In Pictures The last two charts differ from the four above them only in the direction of the coming third wave at multiple degrees of trend. If VIX can break out of its current year long downward sloping trend channel, rising to above about 25, it can bolt 50-100% in a matter of days and signal that Wave 3 down across all of the stock indices is underway. EW structure is coming together just as the markets are entering the middle one-third of the fourth quarter of 2023. The market moving news next week will be geopolitical (24/7) , FOMC (Weds), and AAPL (earnings on Thursday...preceded on Monday with new product announcements). Premium Service Options - Updated Toward the end of next week we will look to rolling over stock index puts from Nov 17th expiration into Dec 15th expiration, moving strikes from deep in the money to just out of the money, More to follow.
