Big Picture Update The forecast for a downside market event this summer holds, with the next most likely macro market moving news coming out of the FOMC meeting July 26-27. The Premium open options portfolio is positioned with Aug and Sep monthly index puts (see option positions table below) and as the final chart on this post suggests, we could be adding volatility calls (VXX/UVXY) as soon as this coming week. SPX - Wave 3 Still Unfolding SPX - Where the bearish case draws a question mark? > 3950-4180 IYR 2 hour SLV 2 hr The charts highlighted this weekend illustrate EW pattern recognition trades over the next two months; short stocks (SPX) and real estate (IYR) and long silver (SLV) and volatility (VIX). Since we already own stock index puts, the only new trade "pending" is the Sep 16th SLV calls. Look for it should SLV rise to above about $17.75 into the close of trading any day this coming week. We will look for a quick triple as SLV retraces back to the area of its previous Wave 4 high just over $20. If it pops quick enough, a higher target ($22-23) is possible. Note how the SLV price momentum oscillator is diverging with price, i.e., it did not make a new low as SLV made a new low @ $16.74 on Thursday. The trigger will be price breaking out of the Wave 5 trend channel, currently at about 17.60 -17.70. If it can stay above $17.75 into the close, go long SLV via calls as follows: Buy Signal Pending: SLV > $17.75 (near or into the close of trading) Option: SLV Sep 16th $17C (1.02-1.03) Targets: SLV > $20; $17C > 3.00 Stop: SLV < 16.70 or -50% on the option VIX - VXX - UVXY Below is a six week, 30 trading day cycles chart for VIX, suggesting a spike starting this coming trading week. Since a volatility spike will go a long way toward confirming the beginning of the long awaited Wave 3 Down, expect an aggressive UVXY trade should conditions warrant. Check the website for an early post should market conditions deteriorate badly on any one day. Two Buy & Hold Long Ideas TSLA - Still correcting off of its 2022 High @ $1,243 AVXL - Alzheimers Phase III Trials ------------------------------------- Open Premium Service Trading Positions
