Three charts below all point to same scenario: Higher interest rates --> Lower Bond Prices (TLT) --> Higher TLT Put valuations. TLT: Long Term Trend Model (Weekly Prices) US Government Bonds 10 Year Yield - Weekly 10 Year Gov't Bond Interest Rates - Double Top Break-Out - Pending TLT Point & Figure - Daily Point & Figure Projects < $70 TLT Dec 15th Puts There are over 100 days left in Dec monthly expiration so the question is how high will interest rates rise, or conversely how low will bond (TLT) prices fall between now and Dec 15, 2023? The weekly TLT chart (first above) is forecasting a 5th wave decline under $40, but it is likely more accurate on price than time. The US 10 Yr Bond chart is threatening an imminent breakout to above 4.50% (middle chart) and an acceleration up thereafter, That should correspond to a steep drop in TLT to below $65 (P&F chart) and anything lower a bonus. That would value the TLT Dec 15th $95P (@ 3.00 = $300) to $3,000 - or approximately 10X it's current price. I like that bet, essentially risking $150 (50% stop) to make a $2,700 gain. Add to Premium Option Portfolio: TLT Dec 15th $95P (2.95-3.05) Bonds have already fallen 50% in this bear market with TLT dropping from a high of $179.70 in March, 2020 to a low of $91.85 last October, so to expect another 50% decline is not unreasonable. How long it will take is the big question mark. With this pick we are adding an at-the-money put, so all we need is for the decline to continue on its current trajectory. This bear market in Bonds (bull market in interest rates) started in March 2020. TLT declined from $179 to $150 in its first three months so a repeat of the same velocity now would take it down now from about $75-80 and take these $95 puts to at least $15-20 for a gain north of 400%. Special Note: PRO Subscribers Review trade from August 22nd. Despite the initial drawdown, all of the three options recommended for that trade still have excellent risk:reward profiles. TSLA Update TSLA fell on Friday ostensibly on another price cut, this time in the Model X and Model Y: A knee-jerk reaction that will soon be forgotten, just like all of the other price cuts. Need I say it again? 2.0 million Cybertruck pre-orders and the vehicle is not yet on the streets. Imagine the share run-up when Cybertrucks are as common at stop lights as Model Y's and Model 3's are now, with Teslas on our streets as ubiquitous as iPhones in our pockets, accompanied with a share price quoted in four digits and a comma. TSLA Long Term (Weekly) A break below $225 (or below trend channel) turns short-term bearish.
