Until there is a bona fide market plunge the bear market that started in January 2022 cannot and will not be over. Nothing close to a plunge has yet to occur, so until I can remove the preposition "pending" from the description, a market crash, plunge, debacle, whatever, is still ahead. Next week begins October, the month of market crashes, so let's put it in caps: PLUNGE PENDING All of the Daily, Weekly and 240 Minute charts I monitor are showing similar patterns. The respective Elliott Wave structure is one of a third wave at multiple degrees of trend with the key takeaway being that if right, a severe sell-off is immediately ahead. Immediately can mean Monday, or October, or the 4th quarter of this year, that part is never as certain as the underlying patterns. With this update, we start allowing for the sell-off to get stretched out into November with a new addition to our strategic options portfolio (below). Note: If you didn't take the new IWM Nov 17th put position near the close on Friday, take it on the first down day this coming week. See IWM chart below for details. Charts IWM: Going out to Nov expiration. November 17th IWM Puts Add Nov 17th IWM $170P on first down close next week. (Aggressive: $165P) DJI - Note how Friday's trading reached up to touch the ATR trend line and reversed back down toward the low of the day - bearish price action. SPY - Long Term (Weekly) QQQ - Intermediate Term (Daily) The similarity of the EW pattern in all of these index charts provides an extraordinary level of clarity to "the big picture." When combined with seasonal tendencies for weak market action it allows for some aggressive option trading. Whether you take it on, or not, is your choice. We still have TSLA coming after an interim low is confirmed (see TSLA chart below). VIX Intermediate Term Model What stands out about Friday's price action? Two things: (1) The bar is bullish blue meaning VIX closed above its open; and (2) Price closed not only above its open, but just off of its high of the day. Trade Management If I were 100% in cash and wanted to enter a bearish option position starting from scratch I would divide my funds into five equal parts and buy each one of the five different options in the table below. If you had to pick just one, always go with the most recent (IWM). Premium Service Options For A Third Wave Down At Multiple Degrees of Trend TSLA When its all over, we still have TSLA to trade to the upside and that keeps looking more enticing no matter what the general market is doing. More on that in the weeks before and after the Oct 18th Earnings Report. The next message from this Daily Intermediate Term Trading Model will be to, "Buy Calls." Price has to close multiple days above its Average True Range for this to occur. Since late 2019 these signals have generated exceptional gains in near, intermediate and long term calls. Along with all we do know, TSLA has triggers from growth ahead that no one but Elon knows about, but that too will soon change. Generational opportunity of a lifetime, still applies.
