Two new positions this past week, one Short, one Long, both going out into September monthly options expiration. It's possible that both will benefit from the same volatility emanating out of the geopolitical sphere, but I am going strictly from the charts, i.e., the pattern recognition set-ups and trend model direction signals. If wrong, the risk is 50% per position, worst case. If right, almost every new option has anywhere from a 5X to 10X potential return. Finally, for anyone still sleepwalking through all this volatility: You can't win if you don't play. The market has lulled us into mostly Tesla and just watching so far this summer, that is about to change, big time. The Big Picture "The Big Picture," is my characterization of directional swing trading basis the stock market indices. As the QQQ chart below illustrates, this technology laden index is showing five waves up at multiple degrees of trend, followed by a Trend Model Sell Signal (down red arrow) and a minor trend channel break. Expected next is a Key Level break and then a major trend channel break. Its all set out in the two QQQ charts below. We have at least initial, if not complete, positions in the QQQ Sep 20th $450P. Once an expected retracement of last week's decline is finished, a new dynamic leg down can be expected. Finish taking positions in this option early next week...that is if market conditions allow. Next decline will be across the board, SPY, IWM and QQQ are all potential put candidates, your choice. We will track the Q's, as they led the bull market up, they should lead the give-back down. QQQ Five 5th waves ending at multiple degrees of trend, followed by first Trend Model Sell Signal on the way down and consistent with Guest Opinion below. Guest Opinion: Mac10, July 19, 2024 CRASH RISK. HIGH. "For the past three days the market rallied in the morning and imploded in the afternoon, which is classic bear market action. This current set-up has the potential to become the fastest crash in history from an all time high, because both cyclicals AND Tech stocks are currently overbought at the exact same time." Link. SH Preliminary Buy Signal in advance of a move to $12.50-15.00 into the fall election cycle. Cheap calls - Jan 17th 2025 $12.00 (.25-.35) ---------- Bitcoin BTC Breakout toward mid $80K's, then $100K in short order. Updated Saturday AM: New ST High @ $67,625 BITO Speculative - only because the downtrend channel has yet to be broken, but by the time it is, BITO should be rising into $25-30 zone. Buy a second tranche of calls then. From Friday's "Into The Close" Special Update Risk 50% to make 500% TSLA - Update TSLA earnings are Tuesday after the close. Our hard stop is a close < $230 and the option stop is 50% trailing from Best Return, which was hit on Friday, Some to almost all of the position should have been exited. If the Big Picture Sell Signal has legs, we will be re-buying TSLA calls from closer to $200 in weeks ahead. TSLA Calls Should have been exited, at least in part, when Current Return dropped below +98% on Friday. Still not bad for a three-month trade. Holding into earnings now assumes a lot of risk, as always, an individual choice. I'll keep tracking these calls in the portfolio, "just in case."
