The Big Picture There are numerous structural scenarios, from this counter-trend being a Wave II, to it being a Wave A of an ABC, to it being a Wave C of an ABC, to it being a Wave I of a new bull market. There is also the possibility that the bounce up from the lows, while counter-trend is still an unfinished counter-trend as we go higher next week. Well, which is it? Occam's Razor Occam's Razor is the principle that for any given set of explanations the simplest one, the one requiring the fewest assumptions, is most likely the correct one. Applied to the DJIA it suggests that at a minimum, the market has or is about to finish a Wave A of an ABC corrective wave of the 11300 pt decline from February 12th to March 23rd. If so, the next wave will be a B Wave to test the 18200 lows, i.e., a 3000 pt decline from current levels. If it happens fast and with enough momentum, it may not stop at all at last week's low, it will decimate global financial markets in a Wave 3 of III down to the real panic levels. We are hanging over a 3000 foot ledge held up only by a $2 trillion dollar rope thrown and held by gaggle of politicians and Fed heads, begging us to cry "Uncle" before they lift us up to safety. Wednesday's low of Dow 21100 is the key level to watch. If it is broken to the downside (about 500 pts lower than Friday's close) the next leg is hard down scenario is unfolding. if instead 21100 holds, a move up to higher Fib levels becomes more likely, This past week saw a rally off of the 18200 reaching as high as 22595 on Thursday. That 4000+ rally has been enough to generate some attractive Sell set-ups for next week. Absent a Black Monday crash, those signals will most likely be generated along with any new market weakness. Trading Tables Premium Service PRO Service On a Personal Note For those of my generation (baby boomers) an especially poignant portrayal of one of the more consequential events of our lives, presented by the preeminent troubadour of our time. Released at midnight Friday morning while we are in the midst of what is shaping up to be an equally consequential time in history. Murder Most Foul
