The CNN Fear & Greed Index has tripled topped in Extreme Greed and that is a pound the table warning sign that a deep dive in the stock market is dead ahead. Look for yourselves. The next drop below 75 is a pattern recognition signal that a deep dive under 25 (in the index) is imminent, probably by and/or into Labor Day, before a low in the stock market of any significance is in. Fear & Greed and S&P Tops In this chart I've gone back to the most recent Fear & Greed measures of Extreme Greed and indicated the drop in S&P 500 price to the ultimate low. As you can see, the minimum expectation is for a 25 point S&P decline, with a possibility of a 100 pt decline similar to what happened in late 2021 to early 2022. Since we have now had what I describe as a triple top in the indicator, it is this 100 pt drop that is front and center between now and Labor Day for a minimum 5X to 10X return on index puts and/or VIX calls. This is not a guarantee, but it is a high probability set-up and if we see it begin to unfold, it will be all in on the short side. We already have an IWM Sell Signal and are waiting for add-on Sells in DJI, S&P and QQQ to go all in on the short side. A Buy in VIX (for out-of-the-money VIX calls) is also imminent. I post daily at mid-day in the PRO Service, at least every other day an hour before the close in the Premium Service, so read these updates and do not miss this next down move. TSLA: The Next Big Thing TSLA is not immune from the macro forces that affect all stocks. If the S&P is about to drop 100 pts, a chunk of that will be accounted for with TSLA price erosion, giving back some of the 500-800% profits in Sep calls, as well as some of the triple digit profits in our 2025 calls. The former positions should be managed with a strict 50% trailing stop, locking in 250-400% gains, while the latter can either be subject to the same 50% trailing stop, or, simply held through the pain. When the decline (if any) is over, TSLA will be running well above its all time high of $414.50, likely before year end. No matter what happens in the stock market over the next 10 weeks of summer, I expect to be back fully and aggressively long TSLA calls by the time we start seeing Cybertrucks taking over the streets and highways of North America, i.e., the next big thing. It's possible that five waves up from the Wave (2) Low shown on this daily chart is in and an ABC correction is due next. It's also possible that TSLA will blow away earnings estimates on July 19th and that $338 Fib extension target (right axis) will pull price to it and beyond, notwithstanding what the rest of the market is going through. Since its inception 10 some odd years ago, all surprises from TSLA have been to the upside and July 19th should be no exception. Below the TSLA Options Table is our Big Picture TSLA Long Term (Monthly Price Line) Target into 2025. Blue Line Premium TSLA Option Positions
