The pattern recognition set-up for a third wave down at multiple degrees of trend has taken an unexpected additional leg upwards, affecting only the structure of the bigger pattern, not the ultimate resolution. A hard down sell-off is still ahead, by a matter of days, maybe a week or two, but its coming. Delay is a buzz-kill when trading options, but there will be ample reward ahead as the pattern unfolds into the end of November and into December. The table below sets out all unexpired trades, entry, current returns, best returns and returns realized on strict application of 50% trailing profit stops. Whether stops were triggered, or ignored, new positions for the next leg down need to be established. The worst of the bear market is still ahead. Premium Trading Service Clearly, when patterns consume more time than anticipated, 50% stops shine, but until the major trend is finally exhausted, you still need to know when to get back in. Note the gains recorded under "Best Returns" in the table above, those will be exceeded by the gains still to come before the end of this year, new positions that will be put on in the next week or two. That will be the focus over the course of the next few days and/or weeks, reestablishing short positions in anticipation of the heart of the 2022-2024 bear market. As that most famous bear Yogi is fond of saying, "it ain't over 'til it's over." Charts & Forecasts DJI Note that Wave (2) Up has reached deep into the Fibonacci retracement window as well the previous Minor Wave 4 of the initial leg down. That puts us on alert that Wave (2) is close to over, brief as it may have been. -------- SPY SPY is showing a similar pattern as DJI, strengthening the case that Wave (2) will be brief, sharp and closer to the end than the beginning. -------- IWM QQQ GLD GLD is flirting with its key break-out level of 185.00, above which should result in an acceleration to above 200+ in a dynamic third wave. Next week should be key as to whether the break comes soon or later in the month. TSLA TSLA reached $226 on Friday before falling back into the close. It is very likely that a new turn up has begun and we are already starting to eye entry points for new calls in the PRO Service. A few more days of strength and we will be doing the same in the Premium Service. We trade TSLA in both services without regard to the big picture macro patterns, just in case our head is up our you-know-where vis a vis the big picture. TSLA is to global transportation what Apple Computer was to personal communications after the introduction of the iPhone. How important is your car and your iPhone to you? That's what TSLA is becoming and if you just have to put a price tag on it, 35 times current valuation is over $7,000 by 2030. If you have ever done a Tesla road trip, getting there will be all of the fun. Tesla's growth spurt began with the initial Cybertruck announcement in November, 2019. Production has followed in the 4th quarter, 2023 with 12-18 months expected to ramp up to full production. By full production, there will be a host of other reasons to own TSLA, but the Cybertruck spark is NOW and although I don't expect a 35X appreciation solely from Cybertruck, by late 2025 Cybertrucks will be everywhere and TSLA should be approaching $1,000/share. Between now and then, any excuse to buy the shares and/or long term calls should be acted upon. Follow my lead. TSLA Weekly The impulsive leg of Wave 3 (circle) has yet to start, but full production Cybertruck will likely the cited, in retrospect, as to where it all began. If TSLA doubles every year between now and 2030, a realistic expectation (see AAPL chart above), $220 will grow to $7,040 by 2028.
