Well, it's really going to hit the fan this weekend and I'm not referring to the football game. The world appears teetering on the edge of a global nuclear holocaust. Or is it? When the news of a possible conflict with Russia broke on Friday the Dow fell all of 500 points. This is really what we know: (1) Major support for the two-week long retracement rally was broken to the downside on Friday, and, (2) The new leg down has all the markings of a Wave 3 impulse that will be relentless and deep, and, (3) Our February 18th options still have five trading days to expiration. Premium-Trades Open Expirations The news over the next 48 hours and into the open on Monday will have a huge impact, positive or negative, on the Feb 18th options. The impact on March 18th expiration will also be significant, but with five weeks to go until March expiration there is plenty of time to recover from any temporary set-backs. This is an example of one of the psychological benefits of time over leverage when choosing options. Pro-Trades Open Expirations Crude Oil is up $4 to $93.90 as of Saturday morning and Bitcoin is trading slightly higher overnight. These are the two markets that can be watched for a heads-up for Monday, and of course, Sunday night's equity futures which ironically open at about the time of the pre-game coin toss. Timing, anyone? Crude Oil - March A trade in the oil sector may be forthcoming. With everything so news-centric right now, a higher risk-reward profile will be attached. Stand-by. Bitcoin Bitcoin looks to be just another stock index, peaking late 2021 and falling in a new bear market ever since. Even the counter-trend retracement is virtually indistinguishable to IWM. IWM Intermediate Term TSLA This is a long-term weekly chart of TSLA showing a completed five wave advance off of the 2019 lows. Price is an a-b-c corrective wave that when complete will lead to a fresh five wave advance from whatever low is put in to new all time highs well above $2K. I still expect it this year, even out of the shadows of a deeply unsettling bear market over the next few months. The Fibonacci retracement chart below allows for further decline before putting in that wave c low. The lower that low, the higher the ultimate upside returns as the new advance unfolds. Tesla is not a company so much as it is the future. Holding shares here and we will be buying more calls as far out in time as they will go and as soon as that corrective c wave low is confirmed.
