The good news is that the stock market is about half-way through its seasonally weak period bringing it ever so closer to a point where we can begin to look more confidently toward long positions, especially TSLA calls and new LEAPS. The bad news is that its too early in the cycle to let our guard down and that monitoring and acting upon breakdowns below key levels is a priority through the next few weeks and into mid October. KEY CHARTS To simplify matters this weekend will focus on just two charts, SPY and TLT, which both offer the most attractive and tradable patterns that are also subject to a key level breaks. SPY Weekly The wave count below is based on pattern recognition and Fibonacci extension targets. The range indicated for Wave 3 is one reason why we must be aware of key levels, especially now, in the middle of a crash cycle window. You can thank me later. SPY Daily The indicated key levels and key trend line set out coincident triggers for additional put positions in anticipation indicated sell-off. If those levels are broken any time next week we will be adding Oct 20th SPY puts, additional indices and strikes are also possible, with the SPY $430 strike (despite -50% drawdown) still near the top of the attractive list. TLT TLT Long Term Trend Model (Weekly) TLT Intermediate Term Trend Model (Daily) TLT's price break below the indicated trend channels suggests a drop into the mid 80's minimum to complete a five wave decline. That decline has just begun with fresh Sell Signals in both the Long and Intermediate Term Trend Models. Option Trading Positions If stopped out by SPY 50% drawdown get back in on any break of the key price levels on the SPY chart above. As for TLT, this is a December monthly expiration with a lot of time still left for this trade to unfold. Chart of the Week: TSLA Long Term (Weekly): "It's Personal" What's next: 2.0 million pre-orders - Cybertruck
