The news from Iran this Saturday morning is not good: Two Iranian gunboats Open Fire on a tanker near Oman Friday: Hormuz Open; Saturday: Hormuz Closed Trump: Iran wanted to close up Strait again, can't blackmail us Link So Monday's Open is once again a flip of a coin. We will deal with directional plays next week, once some semblance of order returns. For this weekend's update, a few subscribers gave me the idea of writing about TSLA again, since they missed the entry on April 8th and wanted to know if it was, "too late." Hell no. Let me explain. TSLA - Weekly There are two clear takeaways from this chart. First, that the past three Aprils were stellar times to buy TSLA andw TSLA Calls. The assumption is that the April 2026 low is also an excellent entry for TSLA shares/calls, an assumption already proven correct with TSLA calls bought on April 8th having been as high as +357%: Worst case, TSLA declines next week and the trailing stop takes us out at +178.57% (save for a token position, just in case). That brings me to the second clear takeaway: That our minimum expectation from the April TSLA price low will be a doubling in share price into the second half of the year and possibly much higher. I did the math, a 2X in share price takes TSLA to $674, while a 3X would take TSLA shares to $1,011 by December. Our July calls are at the $500 strike. This time, you do the math. So far, high print has been $409.78, on Friday. That allows for a lot of upside still to come. If the prior three years are a precedent, the best of the TSLA gains arising from this year's April lows is still to come. My expectation is to roll over those July $500 calls at July options expiration, looking for December then out-of-the-money calls. Yes, all together, we looking to once again knock the TSLA pitch out of the park, way, way, out of the park. The fundamental case for TSLA is twofold, AAPL and SPACEX. Let me explain. My oldest daughter was born in August, 1988. I had bought my first Apple computer a few months earlier. After a month of using it, I was sold, not only on Apple computers, but on AAPL shares. I knew then that Apple was the future and far and above any of those damn Windows based machines I had been previously using. So I bought my precious new infant her first shares of stock, AAPL at a then, "split-adjusted," price of $0.35. It was the preeminent buy and hold stock of my trading career. Fast forward to 2016 and I buy my first electric car, a black Tesla Model S, on just a two-year lease because, well, back then I was still a skeptic. Skepticism be damned, I am now on my fourth Tesla and second Tesla Model Y. Coming next, I stare at every Cybertruck that drives by me. A boy can dream eh? In any case, I am as sold on Tesla's products in 2026 as I was on Apple's products in 1988. Will the TSLA chart follow suit? Read on. SPACEX's IPO is coming in June. I don't know if or how TSLA will immediately be involved, but I do know that eventually, at some point down the road, that Elon Musk will make good on his promises to TSLA shareholders to never forget them. In this, the biggest, most profitable IPO in history, he has a golden opportunity for payback. It may take a few months, maybe a few years, but what is good for SPACEX is ultimately going to be very good for TSLA shareholders. Bottom Line: If not yet in TSLA calls, let's be on the lookout for a dip to correct the run from April 9th lows, a run of $72 and about 21%. There is no guarantee that the dip will come at all, or that the correction will be 38.2%, or 50%, or 61.8%, but those corrective percentages are the most likely candidates. On the shorter-term hourly chart, they look like this: TSLA Hourly A dip into one of the Fib levels shown, followed by a strong up day is the trigger for new entries. This EW count allows for another leg up (to Wave 5 target) before a sizable dip, probably a 50-50 probability. Active Options We are about as light in Active Option positions as we have ever been, but for good reason: Geopolitical headlines overriding our traditional pattern recognition tools. This too shall pass and new trades will start flowing well into the summer and fall. Our job is to stay disciplined and continue to look out for individual stock opportunities like TSLA. Speaking of which, below is the PL roll-over into May, entered late in the session on Friday, along with the just closed out PL April calls: PRO Trading Service Premium Trading Service
