There are seven weeks left in 2023 and the end of year risk profile is as bad as it was in 2018, if not worse. To refresh memories, here is what transpried then: SPY - 2018 Risk Profile To put it in words, it is either straight down from here, or, one more down-up leg and then straight down. Buying January expiration for the next leg down allows for being early, while still maintaining a strategic short position via index puts for the big wave down. If key levels get taken out on the downside we can contemplate a December 15th expiration in one of the leading down indices. Currently IWM is wearing that crown, while QQQ may have the steepest downside potential. Accordingly, I'll be watching for Key Levels in QQQ next. QQQ: End of year 2018 Current Charts IWM Daily Back into the downward slowing major trend channel and leading the way down. SPY Daily In the middle of its Fib retracement zone, pending a turn down and drop. QQQ - Daily Key downside level: Breaking below 370 TLT Daily New entry short (buy Puts), pending a close below 86.00: Target 80-70.
