Our favorite Weekend Update mantra in 2020 was, "Tesla, Again," as TSLA was constantly displacing other Weekend Update subjects on its road from roughly $80 to $800 (split-adjusted). This weekend Bitcoin is replacing IPIX as the intended subject matter, not suggesting that Bitcoin is destined to be another 12-month 10X return, but if that were in the cards pounding the table for Bitcoin is exactly what I should be doing. As for IPIX, suffice it to say IPIX is going into Phase II trials for their covid treatment (note: not vaccine, treatment). Most of what is important was already posted here. IPIX is a very Speculative Buy. Bitcoin Bitcoin reached $41K overnight, already up $7K since the January 23rd Intermediate Term Buy @ $34K. MSTR was a Buy above $570 and it closed at $806 Friday. If Bitcoin keeps its $40K+ level into Monday's Open, expect MSTR to be up $100 or more. GBTC is lagging a bit, but still represents the easiest way to enter Bitcoin as a pure play, other than opening a separate Crypto account or using Paypal which now allows account holders to buy, sell or hold select cryptocurrencies: PayPal Crypto FAQ. The chart below projects where BTC may be going so long as it stays above $38-40K. If it were going to six figures and/or beyond, it would be acting exactly as it has been: New highs, consolidations, new highs. Early in my Bitcoin coverage I suggested that even if the projections of six figured Bitcoin were only 50-50 probabilities it was worth the bet. As Bitcoin's price goes higher those probabilities of $100K+ do as well. How fast Bitcoin makes it to the next level, $52K, could bump-up those probabilities higher, much higher. Downside Risk If Bitcoin $500K were a sure thing, you wouldn't need me. It's time for a reminder that as TSLA ran up 10-fold last year it had a major correction of 80% and a semi-major correction of 30%. Bitcoin already went through its own 80% correction in 2018-2019 when it fell 80% from its late 2017 highs. That still leaves the potential of semi-major corrections in its upward trajectory. This is where my University of Michigan story (circa 1971) comes in: One of my favorite courses was a behavioral psychology course based upon the work of B.F. Skinner. The very first day of class our Professor came in and wrote on the blackboard: Law of TANSTAAFL He said this is the most important principle underlying every aspect of decision making on our lives. He was right: There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch In stock trading (and even more passive investing), every decision involves risk balanced against the opportunity cost in risks not taken. Cryptocurrencies, and Bitcoin in particular, is a perfect example. Buying Bitcoin, TSLA, IPIX, any and all of it, it's your choice. It's always your choice. Eyes wide open. Core Long-Term Stock Portfolio
