Note the use of "Alert" instead of "Update" in reference to the Big Picture. That's because several of the market indices are flirting with key support levels, the breaking of which would imply much lower prices in a new leg down. The assumption this weekend is that near-by support is being or just about to be tested and a failure would be a trading opportunity that we don't want to miss. It's all set out in the charts below, all showing the same pattern except for the last one, TSLA, which appears to be a few months ahead of the rest, being hard down since early January. A rash of red down arrows is coming in the stock indices, if not now, than later. All suggested trades are in anticipation of that turn down. SPY The key level going into the last half of March is the 500-505 range on SPY. If 505 goes, I'm assuming 500 does as well, so we will use that as a trigger to buy May Puts in the Premium Service. If the break is severe, April puts offer outstanding leverage, but also increased risk if the break is quickly recovered. Trade Alert: On a SPY close below 505 and especially below 500, Buy May and/or April SPY Puts highlighted in these two tables above - 50% trailing stop on any new positions. DJIA We don't trade DJI options but the Dow is a useful gauge for big picture analysis. A yet to be seen new red down arrow will lead to the first Dow System Sell Signal of 2024 in this bellwether index and will coincide with a like signal SPY and SPX. That would be enough of a consensus to buy May and/or April puts, especially if IWM follows suit: IWM Trade Alert: Buy IWM May 17th $195P - Use 50% trailing stop. Bitcoin & BITO Calls Bitcoin - Down again Saturday morning, breaking below $68,000 before a small recovery. Where will it be at Monday's stock market open? The March $23C went off the board with a 615% gain and the remaining Jun calls still not stopped out, but getting closer. Worst case, Jun calls get stopped well above 200%. In a bona fide stock market turn-down these will be commonplace returns in stock market index puts. TSLA - Weekly Only one word for this Weekly chart: Ugly Speaking of Ugly: Guest Chart of The Week One last chart for this weekend, uncovered Saturday morning but well worth study. Key takeaway: The market is now in a position where any break of key support, or fresh system Sell Signal, should be acted upon.
