We went into 2023 with the mindset of mega returns in TSLA calls and/or stock index puts. Now, almost half-way through the year we are realizing those mega returns on TSLA calls, but are not giving up on massive returns from index puts, just not anytime soon. Adhere to the 50% trailing stops on any an all new long market positions, and if and when the market turns down, we will adhere just as strictly to any all new short positions. The market is setting us up for something big, on which side of the bull/bear ledger is yet to be determined, but I remain adamant that before this year is out, both longs and shorts will have their 10X returns...just not at the same time. TSLA Daily Trend Model The Wave (2) Low in late April has taken TSLA back up over $200 and is beginning to generate some healthy percentage gains in the Sep $200C, now up over 200% and running (+300% in PRO Service). The good news is that even if the shares turn down in June, our 50% trailing stops will salvage a healthy return for the trade, while a continuation of trend will take the shares up another $100 before Sep monthly expiration. Betting on the continuation of a trend has always been the higher probability bet. Sep 15 $200C: 50% Trailing Stops: (1) Price based = $22.80 (2) Percent Gain based = $22.00 - Both calculations are suggesting $22 is a key price support for these calls. Take note. TWLO Daily Trend Model We suggested the Oct $100C just after the Trend Model Buy Signal had triggered a 33% price pop in mid-May. The only explanation I could find was a buyout rumor with AMZN the suitor. Worth a shot with long-dated out of the money calls as TWLO was a $400 stock a little over two years ago. I wouldn't expect management to take less than half its all time high ($457.30) if buyout rumors carry any weight. Oct 20th $100C: 50% Trailing Stops: Both calculations result in a stop at or below $1.60 Anything Pending? I don't expect any new longs pending in the next few days, but with all of the parallels to 2000 - Dot.com mania vs AI Mania - hovering over this market, any sharp reversals down, especially if accompanied with Trend Model Sell Signals, have to be taken seriously and acted upon as per our big picture bear market thesis. Check the website mid-afternoon (or your email an hour before the close) on any sharp down days. Absent such a sharp turnaround, enjoy the run in TSLA and TWLO. If the former can take out last week's high above $217.25, then $230-250 beckons, and once there, a trade above $300 before Sep 15th expiration transforms from dreaming to: Pending.
