"An inflection points is often identified in retrospect as a moment in time when an event led to significant improvement, deterioration or disruption." The next FOMC meeting is Sept 20-21. They will either crash the market going into the meeting so as to finally affect the so desired, "pivot" back to easy money, or, they will use whatever actions are taken at the meeting as a reason to crash the market post meeting. In either case, our Sep 16th options may not be in the sweet spot for maximum leverage arising out of the meltdown, so the plan is to roll out of Sep 16th and into October expirations, starting next week. Let's see what happens on Tuesday, which will likely take its cue from global markets on Monday, before identifying new positions per index ETF, or anything else (Silver and Gold are extremely oversold and unloved). Active traders can consider weekly index option expirations post the FOMC meeting, but for most the better choice would be the monthly options expiration on October 21st. It has the best liquidity and plenty of time left to accommodate any unexpected delays, including trading halts, limit down Opens, and/or martial law. Any market rallies next week, especially on Tuesday or Wednesday, should be faded big time, as once Wave 3 down becomes hourly headline news, it will be too late, too risky and too expensive to chase. We know what coming, we just don't know when...actually we do know when; it's happening this month. The Geometry of A Stock Market Crash The failure of UVXY to catch a sustainable bid is the market's tell that the worst of the bear market decline still lays ahead. Past market meltdowns, in particular the Covid Crash of March 2020, were eventually led by volatility. When UVXY spikes higher on consecutive days, reaching well above $50, we can assume that Wave 3 is in charge and then and only then do we start looking for and preparing for a market low. Until then, all market rallies are counter-trend, leading to reversals back in the direction of the downtrend with new lows on the horizon. Govern your trading accordingly. Premium Service Open Positions BITCOIN There will be college courses offered one day on the rise and fall of Bitcoin. The latter story continues to unfurl in a cruel and unusual stair-step decline that is acting more like a stock, two in particular come to mind, PTON and TWLO, than a currency, or "store of value" or whatever it purports to be in its current incarnation. Bitcoin lost its appeal to me when it couldn't hold above $30K earlier this year and now it's looking more and more like it has to test and hold $10K before reversing trend. Next time someone cites a stock being a good bargain trading 50% off its highs, remember these three high flyers (there are 100's of others) and how buying at a 50% retracement was an utter disaster. TWLO seems headed toward it's $25 IPO price, and Bitcoin, well, even at 70% off its highs is trading up several million percent from its 1c debut in January, 2009. Round trip, anyone?
