The Big Picture It's a rare Weekend Update when I don't have an opinion, strong-medium-tepid on where the current or impending trend of the market is headed. This is one of those rare times. The market has been in a strong upward trend since April 8th. Retracement Wave 2 or the beginnings of a multi-month Wave 5 to new all time highs? It will decide soon enough for us to put on some new trades, so we going day-to-day into the trading sessions between now and the long Memorial Day weekend. No doubt, we will know by then. PLTR The one remaining Premium Service position in PLTR finally went off the board on Friday. Pursuant to this mid-week update we rolled it over to the Jun $140C before expiration. It went out with a nice gain: As you can see on this chart, PLTR is projected to reach $165 basis the Fibonacci extension tool. How accurate has this been? Spot on for the past year. If this market has any life left in it, our newly purchased PLTR Jun $140C will be deep in the money by Jun expiration. If not, it will be a -50% loss at worse. Based on how PLTR has treated us this past year, a small price to pay for the chance at one more leg up. PLTR Jun $140C - Bought near the close, Friday: At PLTR $165, these calls will be $25, up 5X. PLTR - Past 12 Months What is more striking is adding this PLTR trade on top of the others from the past year. On the table below, I'm showing entry-to-best returns, because everyone's exit policy is different. Generally, we aim to garner at least half of Best Returns so long as Best Returns is over +100%. If it is not, let's just assume anywhere from a -50% loss to break-even. With that as a framework, here are the 17 PLTR positions from the past year: Sixteen out of seventeen winners, with one breakeven (reached +50% Best Return) Bitcoin - Sat Morning Update A quick update on our Bitcoin chart. Note above how important the next breakout is becoming, as a break above recent highs would set up a new target about $50K higher. If in, hold with a stop under $100K. If out, wait for a clean break above $105K, "clean" meaning at least one bar with a low above $105K. Best bets: Calls on IBIT or MARA. See: Into The Close. Active Trades PRO Service Premium Service Tutorial Plug What is most impressive about the PLTR trade table above is not the results. It is that the results flow from basically one trading pattern. We know the pattern here as a "Wave 5 Buy Signal" but its really my own version of a basic Volatility Breakout Pattern. It is a pattern that I am using for other stocks, indices and ETF's, including Bitcoin. As I have already mentioned to subscribers, I am also starting a special online tutorial which is directly addressing this pattern, teaching how to spot it, trade it and manage the trades. It will be a series of emails detailing the mechanics of the set-up and how to trade it, including option trade management. These PLTR trades above stand as the "poster child" for the patten and tutorial, but I could easily have substituted TSLA and TSLL with very similar results, especially the series of trades dating back to mid-2024. For those who still remember it, we had a similar run in TSLA in 2020-2021 and again, the same pattern underlying so many of the trades. "Give a man a fish, and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish, and you feed him for a lifetime." The tutorial will begin next week. There is one-time fee of $495 and I am still accepting enrollment as of this weekend. Please email your interest to my personal email account: apharris@mac.com
