Significant turning points lay ahead for the stock indices and/or two huge runners to the upside, TSLA and Bitcoin. The benefits to a service like ours is that only one side of this bull/bear equation needs to pan out for 3X to 5X to 10X returns on our options. We can take the guesswork out just buying everything and see which ones run, but what would the fun be in that? Let's leave that "no-brainer" trade to individual discretion, choosing instead to monitor price and charts daily and let specific patterns via breakouts trigger trades and see how good we really can be. The Big Picture As usual, let's start with the big picture. Every index looks the same, near the end of a counter-trend rally, ready to breakdown with the assertion of the dominant downtrend that started in late 2024, bottomed out around the first week of April and is about ready to turn back down, big time. DJI 120 Minute Everything we know and need to know is encapsulated above, the top indicated by the red down arrow, the initial waves down, which are numbered as decreasing degrees of trend and the projected natural progression lower, about 20-30% lower basis Fibonacci extensions. Unless and until the market invalidates this count by running above the indicated Wave II high, above about 43,000, we give this downside interpretation the benefit of the doubt. The pattern repeats in the index charts that follow, which is another reason to believe what we see. SPY Daily QQQ 2 Hr Both the SPY (Daily) and QQQ (120 Minute) sport similar patterns, a top late in 2024, interim lows first week of April, 2025 and then counter-trend into the first days of May. Due next is either an acceleration up (not expected) or a breakdown that leaves little doubt as to the dominant trend. Whichever it is we will report it here with aggressive option ideas to maximize returns. Look for definitive movement as early as next week, but time has never been as clear as patterns, so if it takes a month, it takes a month. Being a day late to the next party will be inconsequential to what these chart patterns is suggesting is in store for the indices in the weeks and months ahead. Upon market breakdown add TQQQ Jun 20th $55P Best Bullish Bets As set out in yesterday's update, both Bitcoin and TSLA are close to breaking out to the upside. With the mindset of "a signal is a signal" we will be taking either one, regardless of what our opinion is vis a vis the big picture. It's the only way to play. Bitcoin Two breakouts in different time frames. In and of itself, this chart is enough to be long Bitcoin. We rode a chart like this in PLTR all last year, from $25 to $125, with accompanying massive option returns (see PLTR discussion below). Because perspective matters, let's zoom out and see if we can fine tune a better, more high confidence entry: A break above $110K targets $160K. That's about a 50% run for BTC and in terms of IBIT, Bitcoin's leveraged and optionable ETF, that's a double. No need to wait all the way to $110K, if $105 is hit, $110 becomes a done deal, $160K to follow soon thereafter. Targeting $90 makes the IBIT options below all strong buys, with the $60C being worth $30.00 (currently 3.20) and the $65C worth $25.00 (currently 4.11) , between 8X and 10X potential. Risk 50%. Jun August TSLA Needs to close in the $300's. preferably above $305-310, for this breakout to cleanly clear above the congestion of dual trend lines intersecting right at current price levels. Strength begets strength, defined as a close above $305.00. TSLA 180 Minute TSLL Sep Expiration Based on the projections in the TSLL chart below, the $15C has 3X to 5X potential, more if it happens quickly. 133 days is a long time for TSLA to run. From its lows just a month ago it has risen from $214 to $307, about 50% from low to high. During that run, TSLL was up from $6.00 to $12.00 PLTR: A Blast From The Past On Friday, Jan 31, 2025, I published a special Into The Close. The table above is from that update wherein I suggested that we take some profits in PLTR pre-earnings and roll remaining proceeds into May 16th expiration. PLTR went on to top @ $125 in mid-February, then dropped close to 50% into the early April market lows. It has since recovered much of that loss. There is still one week left in these calls. If still holding the question becomes, rollover, or not? Current Unexpired Position PLTR We can add PLTR to the list of potential bullish plays, but it also can be putting in a terminal double top. If still holding, continue to hold into expiration, but no rollover unless and until new highs are made above $125-130. "Indecision Pending," best describes my take as of right now, to be revisited later next week. Summary: New Trades Pending Day to day on market index puts, TQQQ in particular. Specific Trade Alerts pending. Bitcoin: Buy IBIT Jun 20th $60C on Bitcoin trading above $105K. TSLA/TSLL: Buy TSLL Sep $15C on TSLA breakout above $305.
