Quote of the Weekend “Considerable uncertainty remains as to the ultimate outcome of these events,” Berkshire Hathaway sums up global market and International tariffs going into this weekend's annual meeting. As I write this update on Saturday morning in the background is CNBC live streaming Warren Buffett answering questions at Berkshire's annual meeting. Uncertainty seems to be the theme of the day, month and year with so many variables being thrown at global markets. Bottom line: No matter what the noise, our charts continue to guide us, as they always have and always will. "Why's," are for pundits: Patterns R US; Bonds & Interest Rates Is the US bond market on the brink of collapse? Don't know, but what I do know is that bonds have been in decline (higher interest rates) since Covid. The 20-year bond we trade, TLT, is in the high $80's, about half its value in March of 2020. Below is 5 year chart, showing via weekly price bars all of the damage that has been done. The video below suggests there is more to come and is worth the eight minute viewing, just in case. TLT Long Term (Weekly) Why the US Treasury Market is on the Brink of Total Collapse For our trading purposes, the shorter-term chart below was shared on Friday with both option trading services, pointing to Jun options expiration as the next exponential option returns opportunity, buying just out of the money TLT puts. Six weeks should be enough time for triple digit returns to unfold, but we are looking for something on the side of exponential as opposed to simply triple digit. Risk remains at 50%. TLT Jun 20th Expiration TLT 120 Minute Price found support late Friday at the bottom of the retracement channel shown on this 2 hour chart. A hard break is expected early next week, leaving no doubt as to the intermediate term direction toward the Fib extension targets, initially low $80's, then mid $70's around Jun expiration. Expect to rollover to Jul-Aug-Sep expirations thereafter. If this pans out as shown, it won't be long before higher rates start affecting at the stock market in this bullish-bearish tug-of-war. USO Daily PRO Service - Hold and move stop from -50% to break-even. GLD 240 Minute SPX Intermediate Term (Daily) Next week: Either market soars or reverses hard down. If the former, we are looking at TSLA/TSLL calls, if the latter, TQQQ Puts and/or whatever else looks vulnerable if and when April's rally turns sour into May. DJI - The Big Picture Key Takeaway: Despite the recent run-up, the market is 10% lower today than it was at the late 2024 top (red down arrow). Until proven otherwise, we are in a downtrend, suggesting that the next major move should be in the direction of the dominant trend, i.e., DOWN. There are pattern recognition reasons to expect a strong move, a third wave down at multiple degrees of trend, next. TSLA 2 Hr TSLL Sep Calls TSLA >$300 (top half of circled range on above chart) starts to make these 11 strikes all attractive for an intermediate term summer trade..."See you in September." Option Tables PRO Service Premium Service Second Best Quote of the Weekend "Every now or then you get extraordinary opportunities." - W. Buffett (Berkshire Shareholders Meeting, 05/03/2025)
