I'm starting this Weekend Update about an hour after Jerome Powell's press conference on Friday. It was widely anticipated as his coming to the rescue of the equity markets with an emergency rate cut, but his words fell far short of cutting interest rates anytime soon. In fact, I interpret him as implying just as he and the FOMC had gotten inflation under control, here comes that some tariffs, with unknown effects, to put it right back on the front burner. Bottom line, uncertainty is back, for better or for worse and for stocks at least so far, its worse, worse, worse, as by the time today's market closes the Dow will be down over 2,000 points. All this past week I've sent out my pattern recognition analysis on the major stock indices, just about daily in both services, for few important reasons. First, we made a big bet in early March on a third wave down at multiple degrees of trend hitting the market indices by April 17th options expiration and second, that said expiration is now just nine trading days away, and third, and maybe most importantly, because each and every stock market index is unfolding almost exactly as expected and still targeting much lower prices past April 17th, into May and June. As I so often proclaim, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it," so let's do a round-up of the relevant option positions, charts and wave counts, updating price targets and performance numbers and try to assess where we go from here. Stock Options Performance - April, May & June Expirations We have been pounding the table on owning options that are short the market, SQQQ calls and IWM puts, since at least early March, including no matter how much an individual trader may have taken off the table via trade management, that all should maintain a, "just in case" position, well, just in case the market did what it has done the past two days. As a result, our positions are showing some 3x, 4x and 5x returns between the two services, with more expected before a completed bear market Primary Wave, five intermediate term waves down from the top, can be counted. Premium Trading Service Options - Stock Indices As of Friday's Close PRO Trading Service Options - Stock Indices As of Friday's Close One of the most valuable trading lessons I've taken away from my decades long tutelage under Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave International has been to recognize a winning trade and allow yourself to stay in it, reaping as close to maximum benefits as possible. Letting profits run is how you allow yourself to be successful in this business. While the losses are humbling, albeit teachable moments, it's the wins, like those shown above, that are what makes it all worthwhile. Trade Management Fast and furious will be the market themes over the course of the remaining nine trading sessions before April 17th expiration, which is a Thursday this month due to the market being closed for Good Friday on the 18th. All April 17th options should now adhere to the trailing 50% trailing stops (based on Best Returns) to lock in gains. At least half of the proceeds should be allocated to the above IWM puts with May and/or Jun expirations (leaving some capital left to fund any other ideas that might arise in the coming days). If the market counter-rallies enough, I will be adding May SQQQ calls, but not just yet. CHARTS - Stock Indices In viewing the charts that follow, keep in mind that It's been straight down for stocks for the past two trading sessions. Expect a steep rally at any time, but it will be an even numbered wave, with another odd numbered wave to new lows to follow. Also note that the wave counts shown have been in place since early 2025, adding significant credibility to the general theme of five intermediate term waves unfolding into at least the third quarter of this year, in which prices are currently in the middle of a third wave at multiple degrees of trend. QQQ 3 Hr I fed this chart into Elon Musk's artificial intelligence engine, "Grok," which commented, in part, as follows: "Fibonacci Extensions for Waves 3 and 5 Your use of Fibonacci extensions is spot-on for a bearish wave count: Wave (3): You’ve marked Wave (3) as reaching 387.84, which corresponds to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of Wave (1) projected downward from the Wave (2) high. This is a common target for Wave (3), as it’s often the longest wave in an impulse sequence. The price hitting this level supports the validity of your count. Wave (5): You’ve projected Wave (5) to reach 333.32, based on the 261.8% Fibonacci extension. This is calculated by taking the length of Wave (1) to Wave (3) and projecting it downward from the Wave (4) high of 425.90. The 261.8% extension is a typical target for Wave (5), especially in a strong trending move, so this target is reasonable." SQQQ Hourly IWM Daily IWM Weekly IWM breakdown below 5-year trendline. DJI Daily Another 10% down to complete Wave v of 3, with 5 of (3) still to come. SPY 3 Hr SPX - Weekly Another 5-year trend line broken at Friday's close. New Trade Pending Gold Futures - Long Term "Prechter" Gold Super Cycle Top GLD A Daily close below the up-trend channel coming up off the late 2024 lows is our trigger to buy Jun GLD out-of-the-money puts. GLD's low print on Friday was $278.02 and it will take a GLD close below $278.00 any day next week to trigger the purchase of Jun puts: Jun Puts Option Performance Tables PRO Service Premium Service
