The question that ended yesterday's Into The Close will be the driving factor going into next week. To reiterate: Fibonacci Retracement Rectangle ---> Two Weeks of Strong Resistance: Coming to An End? QQQ 120 Minute Emphasis on: "Coming to An End?" We have been following this chart pattern for going on two weeks, patiently awaiting resolution, preferable downside, but at this point I'd take any strong movement breaking out of the rectangle, up or down. A continuation of sideways is not good for anyone, except option premium sellers, the antithesis of our targeted audience: Exponential option returns seekers. QQQ Daily This set-up still makes the most sense to me, a combination of Elliott Wave Intermediate Term and an orthodox Double Top projection, both projecting to much lower prices. This continues as our operative theme guiding April option expiration strategies, looking for exponential gains in SQQQ calls and/or IWM/SPY puts. SQQQ 120 Minute Lets call this our, "a boy can dream" chart, projecting SQQQ into the $40's, $50's and even $60's in the next four weeks. Accordingly, a selection of strikes to be added under the right market conditions: SQQQ Calls - April Expiration "Right market conditions," at a minimum is taking out last week's lows, preferably on a closing basis. QQQ = 472.41; SPY = 558.72; IWM = 201.76. The key low for maximum acceleration down is QQQ's Wave iii (circle) low, March 13th @ 466.43. Check the website any day these lows are broken for additional instructions. Gold Consistent with this weekend's theme of "Coming to an End," Robert Prechter sent out an unexpected, "Supercycle-Degree Top" signal for Gold Thursday night, calling for a major top going back a Fibonacci 55 years to 1970. The longer term monthly chart below sets out his long term wave count, although it requires a close below about $2,800 to confirm an orthodox top. SuperCycle Top (Quarterly) The 55 years that span this five-wave Supercycle Degree Top pretty much takes place during my lifetime as a trader. Pretty cool, eh? However, Prechter's "throw-over" final fifth wave is not yet complete as it would require a close below about $2,800 for Gold to close back below the Wave III - V trendline. If that happens, expect wealth to flow from shorting all sorts of things, the least of which will be precious metals as the global markets contend with a what Prechter describes as, "global debt deflation." To quote from Prechter's Special Alert: Key take-away here is that even in a bear market, gold will fare better than "any of the investments favored by institutions and the public." In other words, short stocks and crypto. If the intermediate and shorter-term patterns so advise, we shall comply. GLD Shorter-term patterns are still bullish and will remain so until they are not, i.e., the latest breakout needs to stay above the parallel channel, above about 270. Note also the last retracement low, labeled Wave IV (circle), around 240. A hard break here brings the Prechter thesis front and center and we will probably be going short via Jun-Sep GLD puts. SLV The only pattern recognition trade in Silver is a short, targeting <$20 If SLV drops to $25 in 90 days, the Jun $28P is up 5X INDIVIDUAL STOCKS PLTR Nothing to do...Not yet. TSLA Close, but no cigar. Up 15% off its low ($217), but re-test is coming. Stock is still up 80% from its April 2024 low ($138). Same will probably be said one year from now, i.e., "up 80% (minimum) from its April 2025 low." AAPL Too soon to short, but its getting there and will take Q's down with it. HOOD Another reason to not like the long side of this market. BTC In case you needed one more. Bottom Line With quarterly and monthly options expiration out of the way, I expect the true trend of the market to emerge next week, either right out of the gate, or after a fake-out gap early to be reversed later in the week. Without the pressure of an immediate option expiration, we have rare luxury of being patient and not committing our entire bank roll until it breaks in our direction: Small positions in SQQQ calls now, "just in case," with a more serious capital commitment when and if those lows listed above are broken. Active Trades PRO Service Premium Service
