Leading off this weekend is the longer term chart of Nasdaq 100 (a/k/a QQQ) with its two-year support trendline which was briefly violated on Friday but found a bid late and closed just above key levels. The good news for short positions, whether puts on IWM or calls on SQQQ, is that a hard close below that trendline will trigger an acceleration down. We will be ready. NDX (Weekly) Next week the key levels are the two-year trend line @ 20,100 and Friday's low print @ 19,736. The equivalent levels for QQQ are 484.00 (trendline break) and 480.53 (low print). QQQ (Weekly) QQQ Daily - Double Top An AI generated QQQ double top formation with deep dive targeted. The Bullish Case The less likely bullish case is that this trend line is an intermediate term low of significance and looking back will be a major buying opportunity for new long positions. If this turns out to the the path forward into the second quarter of the year, there is plenty of time to seek out longs in some of our favorite stocks with what seems like bargain basement price levels, especially vis a vis 90-120 day call options. These positions will still be cheap at 10% higher prices, so no reason to attempt to catch falling knives, not with what could have been a disastrous close on Friday. Shorter-Term Charts QQQ Hourly I could have placed another 1-2 on this Hourly chart, or even moved the ones shown down a leg, but it wouldn't matter, the path is clear: Stair-step down 1-2, 1-2, 1-2, eventually blowing up into a full fledged Wave 3 down, hard down, with corresponding exponential gains in underlying options. The biggest issue now is whether such climatic action takes place before March monthly options expiration on the 21st. I've allowed for more more retracement zone just above current prices on the shorter-term QQQ, SPY and IWM charts. Conservative traders (oxymoron, yes I know) should err on the side of April 17th options, the rest of us should have at least partial positions in March 21st options. By this time next week, depending on market action in the first half of the week, expect to be rolling March positions into April expiration. SQQQ calls are still our best bets to take advantage of an anticipated QQQ third wave down at multiple degrees of trend. SQQQ Consistent with the QQQ deep dive projections set out above. IWM 120 Minute This 2 Hr IWM chart suggests a tamer unfolding into March expiration, with a potential shallow rally into mid-week next week, then a hard down Wave V (circle) to around the 180 level. That would price the Mar 215P @ 35 (up 10X) and the Apr 210P @ 30 (up 5X). SPY 60 Minute Allows for SPY to complete retracement Mon-Tues, then decline continues. Individual Stocks BABA The one active Long in both PRO and Premium Services, our "just in case" positioning with a potential 3X to 5X in April calls. TSLA Long Term (Weekly) Leave it to me to find something bullish to hang our TSLA hats on (I own three - hats, not cars). This portends an important low coming in the weeks ahead. That weekly support comes in next week at 220-230 and a strong bounce off of it would be tempting to buy. A lot of other things will have to come together to make that happen, including the tempering of bearish potential in the big picture. Nonetheless, TSLL calls are very cheap...and getting more so every day. Active Options Premium PRO
