Last week we bought TLT puts in anticipation of a third wave down, the implication of which is a pop higher in interest rates. The good news is that the TLT puts bought Wednesday are up over 60% in two days. The bad news is that higher interest rates are not conducive for the continuation of a robust bull market. We are holding substantial gains in calls in TSLA, TSLL, PLTR, RKLB and BITO. All of these have reached triple digit gains and that means a 50% trailing stop is associated with most if not all of our call positions. What may turn out to be more strategic would be Sell Signals in major market averages, either via Trend Models (remember those?) or traditional pattern recognition set-ups via the breaking of key levels. It is the latter of which we will be taking a look at today, a review of, "The Big Picture" and where or when we need to turn actively bearish with the purchase of stock index puts. Last but certainly not least, Gold has been in a corrective pattern since the top in late October. It's time to keep an eye out for a bullish set-up and a trigger to get back long GLD calls. The Big Picture TLT A key level rests around the Nov 18th low @ 89.42. Downside momentum should ebb for a day or two, then continue lower as per the Fib extension target around 83.00. It's also possible that TLT will catch a bid and test recent highs, but that is a lessor probability. In any case, price should reach into low 80's over the next few weeks, taking the puts into triple digits. Started just out of the money, now in the money, looking for deep, deep in the money. SPX SPX Trend Model (blue arrows) was correctly Long most of 2024, but price is now getting dangerously close to crossing back below trend line, which would mean a Sell Signal would not be far behind. Key Level: Nov 4th low @ 5,700..stand-by for puts, if SPX 5,700 is broken on a closing basis. Gold The shaded rectangle is ideal Fib retracement of the leg up that took up much of 2024. Price doesn't have to reach that area, around 2500-2600, but if it does and then reverses up, we will be once again buying calls for what will be either a third or fifth wave to new highs. Monitoring daily for further developments. Option Performance: Taking A Bow Top Five Active Option Trades - Premium Service Top Five Active Option Trades - PRO Service All Active Trades - PRO Service All Active Trades - Premium Service Stock Charts - Weekly A longer-term perspective is provided by these weekly charts. Key take-away here are the uptrends and it will take more than one or two down weeks to threaten them. At this point in our trades, it will likely be money management, more than anything else, that will take us out of our long positions, so be aware of where those 50% trailing stops kick in on all big winners. TSLA Do not underestimate the significance of price popping out above horizontal resistance going back three years. PLTR One of the best and brightest CEO's on the planet and stock added to Nasdaq 100 after close on Friday. Bitcoin Bitcoin is the energizer bunny, expectations are for another double from current levels over the next year. RKLB SpaceX was recently valued at $350 billion, while at current prices RKLB is valued at just over $12 billion. Not that they are equals, but that is some huge discrepancy for space competitors. Looking for RKLB to narrow the gap. SOFI They all can't be triple digit winners right out of the gate or this service would be priced a whole lot higher. The high so far is $16.61, hit twice in the past two weeks. Third time’s a Charm’. Phrase of the Day When you use the expression ‘Third time’s a Charm’ you mean that the third timesomething is attempted, luck is sure to result. The phrase is also used as anactual good luck charm that’s spoken just before you try something for thethird time.
