The stock market keeps teasing traders with putting in a top of at least Intermediate of not Long Term duration. Meanwhile, Gold and Silver keep teasing it's traders with a continuation of multiple third waves making new highs. Finally, Bitcoin is teasing its followers as it eases toward the top of a six month long downward channel, labeled on the chart as an elongated Wave 4, in the making since March with a series of lower lows and lower highs, right up until now - where a higher low (@ $52,500) may very well have been put in place. The importance of all of the above markets is the exceptional leverage that a well placed option position will provide the individual trader once breakouts manifest and the real action begins. Opportunities galore and we just need one to hit, Where normally a 3X return is what it took to get my attention and make a trade worth the risk, now its 5X and up. Spoiled? No, opportunistic...see GLD deep dive analysis below. Here are my charts and analysis as of the final weekend of the third quarter comes to a close. Between October and December, we should have answers to all of the teases from each and every market covered. Bitcoin Much of my Bitcoin analysis was posted in Friday's Into The Close, purposely sent out an hour before the close in case anyone had a compelling reason to get a head start on BITO calls. Unless and until that channel is broken and left behind, this cannot be a high confidence trade. Some traders are more less risk aversive than others and the additional reward of buying in front of the breakout is worth the risk. I can't decide that one for everyone. I prefer a breakout, which could very well occur before Monday's market open. In any case, the next move in Bitcoin will take place over weeks and months, so being a day or two late in the trade will have little impact on ultimate gains. BTC Bullish wave count vs bearish downward channel, one of these two patterns is right. BTC Long Term BITO BITO Calls At BITO $30, the highlighted call is up 7X Gold & Silver A pullback Friday in Gold and Silver gives us a good marker for just how bullish we want to be in our trade management. Further declines next week may stop us out of positions via 50% trailing stops, while a recovery that takes out last week's high prints will be our, "all in on GLD and SLV," trigger. Gold Futures GLD Focus On Premium Service GLD Trades - 2024 No one is expected to exit trades at "Best Return" levels, unless that level coincides with the option's expirations dates, which although rare, does happen. For most of us, getting approximately half of the Best Return percentages is good enough and using that 50% trailing stop once a trade is up 100% will lock that in. Alternatively, Buy and Hold, rolling over during week of option expiration, as per our instructions. Let's take a deeper dive: Premium Service GLD Currently Active Entered on Sep 17th, proceeds from rolling over the Sep 20th $220C @ +253%. If all the proceeds were rolled over, the combined return from the Jun 18th GLD trade is up about 6X. But that Jun 18th was itself a rollover of the Mar 1st trade @ +263%. In other words, the GLD trade from March 1st (Into The Close, GLD Buy Signal) has been rolled over twice, for +263% and +253%, combined with the current +60%. All from GLD, pattern recognition and decent option selection and conservative trade management. BOTTOM LINE $1,000 of GLD calls bought on March 1, rolled over twice @ Jun and Sep expirations, pursuant to Blue Line Trading Alerts, would today be worth $15,795. SLV KISS: If SLV closes > $30, we will buy calls for a run to $35-40. Stay tuned. Stocks & Indices RKLB We bought calls in RKLB the PRO service last week, two expirations that had both doubled at one point Friday morning as the shares are rocketed higher. I'm extending that trade into the Premium Service for next week with Jan 17th calls and a hard stop on any stock close below $8.00. RKLB Jan Calls Expectation is for the mid-teens by Jan monthly expiration, 3-5X for the highlighted call. QQQ This is the most important stock market indicator for stock prices into the 4th quarter of 2024. This technology laden index is more representative of our economy than any of the others, although the Russell 2000 is a close second. If we put them up one after another, a similar pattern emerges: IWM As with the Nasdaq 100 above, this index looks ready for a fall, with the only argument against it being that it hasn't fallen yet. Not very convincing. We are long TSLA, PLTR and now, RKLB, so if the market has any bullishness left in it, we are well covered. Meanwhile, another 4-5 weeks of a crash window has to be foremost in our plans, but knowing what triggers, "hard down" is just not knowable. When and if it manifests, look here for put ideas, and hopefully we will get a heads-up with enough time to establish new positions before the bottom falls out. I am looking closely at these two indices while noting that the Sell Model trigger for IWM is just under current prices. Recent put purchases are close to if not exceeding 50% hard stops, but that won't deter me from going back in to Nov-Dec expirations if the market looks lower in the days ahead. Too much reward on the downside to sit on the sidelines.
