We placed some big bets earlier this summer on September options expiration. Some worked, some didn't, but that is the nature of options trading. Our goal is to be right a little over half the time, expecting to be wrong a little under half the time. We also expect some of those wins to he huge, triple digit plus gains, while limiting the losses to around 50%, more or less. Let's see how we did and in doing so. look ahead to the fourth and final quarter of 2024, and where opportunities lay ahead for the markets. GLD Targeting GLD 270-300 end of 4th Qtr, 2024. PLTR If "The Big Picture" bearish thesis (below) is wrong, this could be a triple digit stock in 2025-2026. TSLA Still looking for $300+, absent a market meltdown. Look for a $20+ day to kick it off. Option Positions & Performance of Winners This table shows current and just expired call positions in the three above charts. The GLD calls that expired on Friday was rolled over earlier in the week pursuant to this Trade Alert. Going forward into the fourth quarter we are long calls in GLD, PLTR and TSLA (including TSLL) , all of which we have been long pretty much all year. So long as they keep going up, we will keep rolling them over and add calls on new names if conditions so warrant. Note three of the positions have already reached triple digit Best Returns and should subject to 50% trailing stops. The Big Picture Well, that's the good news. The bad news lays in one area alone: stock indices. Rather than look at it as bad news, my ongoing assumption is that we were early with puts. I sent out a tease Friday about the most important chart of the year, so lets get right to it, along with two related charts that shed additional light on why I continue to lean bearish into the rest of 2024: QQQ Daily My wave count on QQQ could be off by one degree of cycle, i.e. move and ii (circled) over from Aug 22 to Sep 19. In that case, it would look like this: QQQ - Alt Note: In either case, a third wave down is imminent. NVDA Weekly This is a weekly,"big picture" view of one of the most important stocks of 2024. It had risen from $40 to $140 in the one year prior to its 10/1 split, then peaked within days and has traced out a bearish wave 1-2 pattern since mid Jun, not even close to new highs. One of the reasons to lean bearish over the next 90 days. SOXX Daily Ditto: Semiconductors Call it whatever sector fits the bill, Technology, AI, Semiconductors, all sectors that have been leading this market up all of this year and most of last. NVDA in particular has been the cover issue for this bull market. However, not so fast...it topped in mid-June, one week after its 10/1 stock split. The Semis, SOXX, topped in July, along with QQQ and neither have yet to rally back beyond traditional Fibonacci retracement levels. This is why I lead off The Big Picture with QQQ. These stocks and sectors are leading indicators. If all of the above were to make new highs anytime soon, the bear thesis is dead. Otherwise, it is just laying in wait. DJI The DJI is sitting right atop its Wave 1-3-5 trendline. Significant if and only if it closes below, then it becomes THE top. SPY 2-Day The big arrows are are main directional signals, the little arrows "early warnings" of turns coming. SPY 2-Day early warnings were whipsawed back to Long last week. I still believe in this system enough to send out Alerts for the next early warning Sell reversal, which if my QQQ count is right, should come next week. IWM Basic pattern recognition suggests the path of least resistance is down. Those are some deep downside targets (170-190) and IWM may be our next option play. CHART OF THE WEEK This is a long term Elliott Wave chart of Gold Futures, suggesting that Gold is in a third wave up at multiple degrees of trend. In and of itself, it does not lend itself to option trading, but, in conjunction with our shorter-term charts, including the GLD chart that led off this weekend update, it does provide a significant bullish trend for our shorter-term GLD calls to ride. More problematic is the Fibonacci extension tool projections of Gold rising well into the $3,000's over the next 12 months. What could cause such a move? Inflation? No, not in and of itself. An election nightmare? Again, not in and of itself. How about an unexpected global geopolitical event or development? The US dollar is crashing. Warren Buffett owns more treasury bills than the Federal reserve. Who knows what? Speaking for just me, I know that Gold and Silver charts are bullish and price is confirming my wave counts. The whys, explanations and idle conjecture will have take a back seat. So long as price is following trend, this remains our best idea of the year, with returns to show for it: Expired GLD Options 2024 Realized gains/losses vary with trade management, we prefer a hard 50% stop from entry and a trailing 50% stop once trade is up triple digits.
