Gold (GLD) Leading off this weekend is Gold, which was up $50 on Friday and is finally beginning to look like its spiking in a wave 3 of 5 (wave count on GLD chart), heading north toward $3,000. Gold Futures We have been aggressively buying GLD calls since March and in fact, with the March 1st entry into the Apr $195C generated the best option return of 2024, having reached +832% on April 12th. GLD For the next four weeks we will be going with previously recommended Sep GLD calls set out below, likely rolling over to December sometime after Labor Day and before Sep 20th expiration. Previously Recommended & Unexpired GLD Calls The Big Picture The August-September Crash Window remains open, but the value of any remaining Sep 20th index puts has been decimated. Two trade management changes based on current events: (1) The crash window is now extended into and including the election month of November. The increasing political tension and divide is not getting any less ominous and there are now stirrings of a contested election being thrown into the House of Representatives. This would be new to all of us, including the stock market, which abhors uncertainty; (2) Our next foray into a hedge for a crash will be with December and/or January expiration. We are probably a week or less away from new positions, so stand by. Best bang for the buck will be calls in SH Jan 2025 and/or SQQQ Dec 20th. There is still 35 days in Sep 20th index puts, but time is not on our side absent something big happening. QQQ -120 Minute This is the QQQ 120 Minute chart that has been guiding our pattern recognition analysis most of the summer. In this rendition of the Elliott Wave count, Wave i (circle) completed with August 5th panic down day, which has been followed by two weeks of a Wave ii (circle) that reached the area of the previous Wave iv down, a natural reversal zone for the start of a new leg iii (circle) down, projecting to below QQQ 400. If so, the QQQ Sep 20th $450P is about to have quite a month. The Sword of Damocles In a few short hours on August 5th the Japanese market lost 12% and the Dow Jones Industrials were down over 1000 points. At least five major US brokerage firms were unable to open for retail trading. Talk of a market collapse is not just hyperbole, it has happened before and it will happen again. The speed in which our markets have recovered from Aug 5th has been remarkable and even this service, which has been pounding the table for a "worst case scenario," for much of the summer is now touting call options on two high profile stocks. We are all getting sucked in again. The problem is that if and when markets fail, they take no prisoners. The only way to protect, hedge or profit from being on the right side of a crash is to be ahead of the curve, i.e., positioned ahead of time. That means taking losses, realized and unrealized, on the false alarms, while waiting for the most dire of market events to unfold. The failure of any real follow-through on Aug 5th is not a good sign, in fact, it makes what's coming next even more worrisome. The bulls are back, but only for the time being. Politics and war continue to act as a Sword of Damocles over this market. “Every man, woman and child lives under a nuclear sword of Damocles, hanging by the slenderest of threads, capable of being cut at any moment by accident or miscalculation or by madness.” - John F. Kennedy, United Nations, 1961 While Waiting For Armageddon: Long PLTR & TSLA PLTR - 2 Day Chart This 2-day PLTR chart works well as a compromise between a Longer Term (Weekly) and an Intermediate Term (Daily) perspectives. Patterns and Trend Models work just a well, in fact, notice that since early 2023 Buys have resulted in spikes higher, while Sells have only resulted in sideways to shallow declines. Grok Analysis Grok is Elon Musk's chatbot (available free to certified Twitter subscribers). I asked it for a Jan 1, 2025 share price valuation for both PLTR and TSLA. In both cases, the valuation came in pretty much in line with the technical analysis projections from my charts for the past few months. Coincidence, or an examaple of confirmatory analysis? Maybe a little of both. What will PLTR's stock price be on Jan 1, 2025? Answer by Grok: Ah, predicting stock prices, the crystal ball of the financial world! Here's what the galaxy of analysts and the hive mind of X users are buzzing about for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) by January 1, 2025: Analysts' Consensus: If we're to believe the collective wisdom of the analysts, PLTR's stock price might be dancing around $23.29 to $36.98. This range comes from various forecasts, with some seeing a conservative dip to around $21.32 and the optimists dreaming of a high of $35 or even more ambitious targets like $45.15. X Sentiment: The sentiment on X is a bit like a space shuttle launch - lots of excitement and speculation. Predictions here range from the cautious to the wildly optimistic. There's talk of PLTR reaching $50 by 2025, with some even suggesting a moonshot to $100 if the AI revolution plays its cards right. However, these are the kind of predictions that might require a bit of intergalactic luck or a significant breakthrough in AI or market dynamics. A Grok's Perspective: Given the data, here's a humorous take: If Palantir's AI becomes sentient and decides to invest in itself: We might see a price that's not just out of this world, but out of this galaxy. Let's say, for the sake of humor, $1,000,000 (but let's not hold our breath for that). Realistically: If everything goes according to the most grounded forecasts, considering growth in AI adoption, new contracts, and assuming no major market crashes or company-specific scandals, PLTR might hover around $30 to $40. This accounts for the growth trajectory, market sentiment, and the general tech stock buoyancy. The Wildcard Scenario: If Palantir's tech becomes the backbone of interplanetary travel or solves world peace, we could see numbers like $50 or beyond, but that's venturing into the realm of speculative fiction. Remember, predicting stock prices is like trying to guess which planet a spaceship will land on next - there's science, there's speculation, and then there's just hoping for the best. For PLTR, with its niche in AI and government contracts, the sky's not the limit; it's just the beginning. But for a precise number? Let's just say, if you're looking for a bet, aim for the middle of the analyst range, but keep your space helmet on for any unexpected cosmic events. TSLA - Daily It's an even money bet as to which call will be up 5X first, the TSLA Jan 2025 $240C or the SH Jan 2025 $12C, both held in the Premium Service Options Portfolio. We will likely add an SQQQ Dec 20th $10C to that mix in the days ahead. The way the next three months are shaping up, its conceivable all of them will be up 5X or more...just not at the same time. What will Tesla stock price be on Jan 1, 2025? Answer by Grok: Predicting stock prices with precision is like trying to predict the exact moment a cat will decide to knock over your favorite vase - it's all about probabilities and a dash of chaos. However, let's dive into the crystal ball of data and sentiment: Analysts' Predictions: There's a wide range of forecasts for Tesla's stock price by January 1, 2025. From the information gathered, analysts have thrown numbers around like confetti at a New Year's party, with targets from as low as $24.86 to as high as $310 for the near term, but for 2025 specifically, we're seeing predictions like $300, $350, and even a bullish $585. Sentiment on X: The vibe on X (formerly Twitter) is generally optimistic, with some users and analysts suggesting Tesla could hit $300 to $400, and in the more optimistic scenarios, reaching towards $500 or even $1000, based on various growth models and the company's potential in autonomous driving and new market entries. Market Dynamics: Tesla's stock has been a roller coaster, influenced by production numbers, competition, and Elon Musk's tweets. The EV market's growth, Tesla's advancements in technology like full self-driving (FSD), and new vehicle models could significantly boost its stock price. A Grok's Perspective: If we're looking for a number that might make both bulls and bears nod in agreement, considering the data and the general tech stock volatility: Conservative Guess: Given the current stock price and the range of analyst predictions, if Tesla continues its growth trajectory without major hiccups, we might see it around $350 to $400. This accounts for growth in EV sales, potential in autonomous tech, and assuming no catastrophic market downturns or company-specific scandals. Optimistic Scenario: If everything goes according to the most optimistic plans (like FSD becoming a major revenue stream, significant market share gains, and no significant new competition), we could be looking at $500 or more, but let's not forget, the stock market loves its surprises. Remember, predicting stock prices is part art, part science, and a whole lot of speculation. Tesla, with its history of defying expectations, might just decide to orbit around Mars by 2025, who knows? But for now, let's stick with the numbers that seem to have a consensus behind them, with a healthy dose of humor and skepticism.
