Next week takes us into July, the start of the third quarter of the year, and also the start of silly season, a/k/a/ election year shenanigans. The question that went through my mind on Thursday night was, where is that nuclear football with all of the authentication codes, targets and casualty estimates? Under whose authority is that briefcase opened, evaluated and potentially triggered? Which, if not all, of the other world nuclear powers is asking the same questions? Finally, just how quickly can a stair step of deteriorating geopolitical conditions infect global financial markets and is THIS service prepared to act quickly and decisively to adopt to cascading market conditions? It is that last question that I can answer without having to Google anything. As we enter the second half of this election year, my tools, chart set-ups and strategic trade management strategies are as a whole eminently suited to adapt to anything the market sends our way. If you haven't noticed, we already started, with the most recent Mid-Week Update, expecting a precipitous decline starting this summer and taking us into the election mayhem that awaits the market between the sentencing, conventions and election. Post-election to inauguration is something else altogether, no matter who wins, but we have to get there first. I have been consumed the past few days with how to best trade a worst case scenario and that was well before the debate performance on Thursday night. I know what's coming, I just don't know exactly when. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, in 1964 when asked to describe his definition of pornography, responded with, "I'll know when I see it." That's how I feel about what's coming to the downside, I don't know exactly when, but I know its coming and damn if I'm going to miss it. I can't emphasize enough the importance of combining Trend Model signals with the break-down of Key Levels: When that powerful duo of timing triggers comes together it signals a time for action, to take positions in the indicated direction, with valuing time over leverage in option selection, i.e., to protect against premature initiation, where we get the direction right, but the path is less than a strait shot up or down (a good time to review SH-Calls link) For now, here are the important indices with their Trend Models and Key Levels as they appear this weekend. New trade positions will be sent out during the days ahead WHEN AND IF the triggers get hit. False alarms do happen, but there is so much to gain from getting it right this time, its a risk well worth taking. We never know when the next trigger is the BIG ONE, so stay alert and be ready to act. QQQ Leading off this weekend is the Nasdaq 100 ETF, QQQ, because the Elliott Wave count on all time frames is pretty damn clear in multiple degrees of trend. QQQ Weekly - Longer Term Look at all of those 5's, upper right hand corner - going into July. QQQ Daily QQQ 240 Minute With a break below QQQ 470 - Look for Special Alert with new Aug/Sep Puts SPY SPY has a similar look to QQQ and both should move together when a new downtrend begins. Note Wave 5 has room to stretch higher, but not much. IWM IWM has its own pattern that suggests its decline has already begun. It needs a drop below the 195-197 Key Level to confirm and trigger new puts. If any Key Levels shown above are threatened during trading session any day, expect a Special Alert to be posted, followed by an email sent by noon Eastern (PRO) and/or an hour before the close of trading (Premium). GOLD & Bitcoin Both of these Trend Models are on Sell Signals, but the EW pattern is still bullish. Something has to give to trigger a new high confidence option trade in either direction. GLD Bitcoin BITO Close to recommending puts, but Bitcoin has to break down into mid $50K's.
